Protocol Raw: Growth Strategy v2.4¶
Last updated: February 6, 2026 Status: Aligned with Business Plan v2.2, Financial Model v1.3, Metrics Reconciliation v1.0, Growth Playbook v2.1
Version History¶
v2.4 (February 6, 2026) — Two Crowns Framework & Business Plan v2.2 Alignment¶
Changes: - ✅ Two Crowns Framework integrated: Safety crown (Phase A, Months 0-18) → Outcomes crown (Phase B, Months 18-36) with curiosity signal rules - ✅ Outcomes Data Infrastructure added: Baseline health questionnaire, checkpoint questionnaires (Box 2/6/13), target 12+ months data by Month 18 - ✅ Institutional Relationship Strategy added: Advisor → Partner → Validator model, target 1-2 vet academic advisors by Month 18 - ✅ 4 new Strategic Risks: Narrative theft, "safety company" pigeonhole, second moat neglect, "impressive but not for me" - ✅ Brand Principles updated: Added "We lead with the feeling. We back it with the system" - outcome-first messaging - ✅ "Worry Goes Away" litmus test: Release gate for all customer-facing materials - ✅ Phase A Workstreams expanded: Now includes "Quiet Infrastructure" (outcomes data, institutional groundwork) alongside visible validation - ✅ Success Metrics expanded: Added Advocacy Language tracking, Health Data Completeness, Institutional Progress - ✅ Manufacturing capex corrected: £3-5M → £1.25-2.0M (per Business Plan v2.2 Appendix) - ✅ Series A sizing corrected: Option B now £12-17M (down from £15-20M) - ✅ Ring-fenced budget: £2-5k/month for outcomes moat infrastructure (protected from cuts) - ✅ Month 12-14 Technical Bandwidth Assessment: Decision framework for manufacturing systems extension - ✅ Growth Playbook v2.1 alignment: Explicit document relationship table added
Rationale: v2.3 added metrics reconciliation (ARPU terminology, churn definitions) but predated Business Plan v2.2's strategic additions. v2.4 merges the financial precision of v2.3 with the Two Crowns Framework, Outcomes Data Infrastructure, and Institutional Strategy from Business Plan v2.2.
v2.3 (February 6, 2026) — Metrics Reconciliation¶
Changes: - ✅ ARPU terminology clarified: Line 55 and 80 now distinguish "Realised ARPU" (£1,040, conservative post-cadence-drift) from "Theoretical ARPU" (£1,180, perfect 4-week cadence) - ✅ Churn metric renamed: "Gross Churn/mo" → "Steady-State Churn/mo (≥Box-2)" with footnote explaining relationship to Financial Model's 9.5% blended churn - ✅ ARPU note corrected: Fixed arithmetic error (£1,278 ÷ 1.20 = £1,065, not £1,040) and clarified that ARR uses Realised ARPU with Phase A exception explained - ✅ Phase D Net New footnote added: Clarifies that "Net New 2,000-3,500/mo" includes UK + EU markets combined; UK-only averages ~1,700/mo - ✅ LTV:CAC progression note added: Explains that ratio improvement reflects CAC declining + treats ARPU lift + churn improving, not just one factor - ✅ Cross-references added: Explicit links to Financial Model v1.3 and Business Plan v2.3 terminology
Rationale: Metrics Reconciliation v1.0 identified that £1,040 appeared across all three planning documents meaning three different things (LTV in Financial Model, ex-VAT ARPU in Growth Strategy, conservative ARPU target in Business Plan). Churn definitions also differed without explanation. v2.3 adds explicit terminology and cross-references so an investor reading across documents encounters consistent language.
v2.2 (January 23, 2026) - Manufacturing Decision Framework Alignment¶
Changes: - ✅ Manufacturing decision moved to Phase B (Month 16-17): Decision is now a conviction bet made before Series A raise, based on Phase B trajectory data - ✅ Added competitive precedent: Bella & Duke (£11-19M revenue) and Butternut Box (£10-20M revenue) both made manufacturing decisions at similar scale - ✅ Decision inputs table added: Specific thresholds for Box-2 retention (≥70%), City 2 replication, COGS trajectory, CAC efficiency (£70-90), referral rate (trending to 25%) - ✅ High-confidence gate added: "Option B is only chosen if all Phase B thresholds are met" - ✅ Series A Capital Strategy split: Now shows both Option A (£10-15M, co-packing) and Option B (£15-20M, manufacturing) allocations - ✅ Phase D Manufacturing section rewritten: Now reflects execution of decision made at Series A, not new decision at Month 42 - ✅ Phase D metrics updated: Now shows both Option A and Option B contribution/COGS targets - ✅ Series B allocation updated: EU manufacturing decision now explicitly tied to UK manufacturing success - ✅ Stop-rules updated: Removed "evaluate in-house production" language; now references manufacturing decision inputs - ✅ COO hiring section updated: Now references manufacturing execution (Option B) or co-packer optimization (Option A) - ✅ Conclusion updated: Added manufacturing decision to Phase B success factors
Rationale: Aligns with Business Plan v1.7 manufacturing decision framework correction. The previous framework referenced "Month 42 manufacturing optionality" which conflicted with competitive precedent (Bella & Duke, Butternut Box both decided at £10-20M revenue) and created a logical impossibility (deciding Series A size based on data that doesn't exist until post-Series A). The revised framework makes the manufacturing decision a conviction bet at Month 16-17, based on Phase B trajectory data, with clear thresholds and irreversibility principle.
v2.1 (November 21, 2025) - Team Structure & Moat Clarification¶
Changes: - ✅ Team structure corrected to reflect founder as permanent systems architect - ✅ Operations Lead role redefined: Execution generalist (Month 7-9), not technical leadership - ✅ Operations Lead profile added: Founder's partner, RIA Money Transfers supervisor background - ✅ Operations Lead compensation: £50k + 0.5% equity (not £50-65k as previously stated) - ✅ Jamie (Commercial Advisor) clarified: 2-year advisory relationship, 0.75-1.0% equity, no full-time conversion - ✅ Founder's permanent role emphasized: Systems architecture authority never delegated (this is the moat) - ✅ COO path defined: Month 24-30 evaluation (promote Operations Lead OR hire experienced food/frozen COO) - ✅ Claims hygiene updated: "Zero pathogen failures" → "100% released (no pathogen failures in released batches to date)" - ✅ Lab sampling schema added: Composite sample (n=5), backup lab trigger defined - ✅ CPD terminology standardized: "Normalized CPD" defined (includes imputed labor for planning) - ✅ Phase A contribution clarified: £18-24 (Month 0-3) → £22-26 (Month 6 target) - ✅ Treats strategy fully integrated: Month 9-11 launch plan with comprehensive details
Rationale: Original v2.0 suggested "Operations & Data Lead" would own system architecture, diluting founder's core technical moat. Corrected structure protects the 18-24 month competitive lag by making clear founder retains systems architecture permanently. Operations Lead handles execution (monitoring, coordination, compliance, customer operations) within founder-designed systems.
v2.0 (November 21, 2025) - Comprehensive Realignment with BP v1.4¶
Changes: - ✅ Market sizing updated to £255M raw baseline - ✅ Expansion scenarios recalibrated: £383M/£510M/£638M - ✅ Revenue targets aligned: £42-54M/£56-71M/£70-89M - ✅ EU expansion corrected: £60-81M ARR from 70-85k customers - ✅ Exit valuations updated: £490-890M (UK) / £1.14B-£2.22B (Pan-EU) - ✅ Trust Ceiling narrative integrated - ✅ Pricing finalized: 8kg £89 / 12kg £109 / 16kg £129 (inc-VAT) - ✅ ARR uses Realised ARPU £1,040 ex-VAT (conservative, accounts for cadence drift; theoretical £1,180 at perfect 4-week cadence)
Document Relationship¶
| Document | Purpose | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| Business Plan v2.2 | Strategic positioning, financials, team, investor-facing | Founder |
| Growth Strategy v2.4 (this doc) | Targets, phases, milestones, capital deployment | Founder |
| Growth Playbook v2.1 | Tactical execution, channels, creative, cadence | Founder → Marketing Lead |
| Financial Model v1.3 | Unit economics, LTV calculations, scenario modeling | Founder |
| Metrics Reconciliation v1.0 | Cross-document terminology alignment | Founder |
This document defines WHAT and WHEN. Growth Playbook defines HOW.
Executive Summary: The Path to £70-89M ARR¶
Protocol Raw targets £70-89M ARR by Year 5 (Growth Case) by institutionalizing transparent verification as the new standard for raw dog food. This represents 11-14% of the expanded £638M verified raw market, not share-stealing from the stagnant £255M incumbent market.
Strategic Foundation¶
Market Opportunity: - UK raw market has hit a "Trust Ceiling" at £255M (+1-2% growth) despite favorable macro trends - Butternut Box's £150M revenue proves raw-curious buyers exist at scale—Âthey settled for cooking because verification didn't exist - Verified transparency can expand category 1.5-2.5× (£383M-£638M) based on organic food analogy - Fresh market (£305M) represents prime conversion target—Âsmaller behavioral leap than kibble→fresh
Competitive Moats (36-42 month cumulative lag): 1. Proof Infrastructure: Batch-to-QR-to-published-results system (18-24 month build + trust accumulation) 2. Operational Rigor: Test-and-release protocol at scale with 2-3 day lab turnaround (12-18 months to operationalize) 3. All Life Stages: FEDIAF Growth & Reproduction compliance enabling lifetime capture (6-12 month formulation + validation) 4. AI-Native Operations: 70-80% automation creating 10-19× operational leverage (12-18 months to build + refine) - Critical: Founder retains systems architecture permanently—Âthis is the technical moat 5. Brand Equity: Systematic "proof, not promises" positioning driving vet endorsement flywheel (24-36 months to compound) 6. Outcomes Data Accumulation (NEW in v2.4): Longitudinal health data from 1,000+ dogs creates second moat (18-24 months)
The Two Crowns Framework (NEW in v2.4)¶
Protocol Raw pursues two sequential "crowns"—category-defining positions that create durable competitive advantage:
Phase A Crown (Visible, Months 0-18):
"They made raw feeding something you don't have to worry about."
This is the safety crown, framed as customer outcome. The goal is to win this so completely that it becomes boring for the market to argue about.
Phase B Crown (Visible, Months 18-36):
"They understand what raw actually does to dogs."
This is the outcomes crown. It changes the competitive frame from "Is raw feeding safe?" to "Does this food actually improve health?"—a much larger market.
Sequencing Logic: - Safety wins entry (removes barrier to trial) - Outcomes wins authority (creates expertise positioning) - Authority wins permanence (becomes the reference point)
The Pigeonhole Risk:
"By the time Protocol Raw wants to 'switch crowns,' the market may have permanently filed us as 'the safety raw company.' That's not a bad box, but it's a sticky one."
Mitigation: Phase A Curiosity Signals Quietly seed—very lightly—the idea that Protocol Raw is learning what raw does to dogs, not just making it safe. Not as claims. As curiosity signals. This keeps the door open for Phase B without diluting Phase A focus.
Unit Economics Target (Mature State): - Realised ARPU: £1,040 annually ex-VAT (theoretical £1,180 at perfect 4-week cadence; see Financial Model v1.3 for cadence drift sensitivity) - CAC: £60-75 blended (35% referrals at £0, 65% paid at £92-115) - Box-2 retention: ≥70% - Contribution: £28-32/box (CPD £8-10, co-pack £2.40-2.70/kg) - Payback: <4 months
Three Scenarios, One Playbook¶
| Scenario | Market Expansion | Protocol Raw Share | ARR Year 5 | Exit Value (7-10×) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.5× → £383M | 11-14% | £42-54M | £294-540M |
| Expected | 2.0× → £510M | 11-14% | £56-71M | £392-710M |
| Growth | 2.5× → £638M | 11-14% | £70-89M | £490-890M |
Plan for Growth, Fund for Conservative. All hiring, capital deployment, and profitability gates must clear under Conservative Case. Growth Case represents evidence-supported upside, not dependency.
Pan-European Option (Years 5-8): If UK Growth Case materializes, EU expansion (Germany, France, Benelux, Nordics) can deliver additional £60-81M ARR → £143-185M combined ARR → £1.14B-£2.22B exit value (8-12×).
Phase A: Proof & Product Validation (Months 0-6)¶
Goal¶
De-risk demand, validate unit economics, confirm FEDIAF completeness, build 300-500 customer foundation for seed raise, and begin quiet infrastructure for Phase B crown transition.
Phase A Workstreams (NEW in v2.4)¶
| Workstream | Activities | Success Metric | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safety Crown (Visible) | Product launch, CAC optimization, retention validation, vet endorsements | 70% Box-2, CAC £70-90, 3-5 vet endorsements | Public |
| Proof Infrastructure (Visible) | Batch testing, QR system, proof portal | 100% batch coverage, >10% QR scan rate | Public |
| Outcomes Infrastructure (Quiet) | Health questionnaire design, baseline methodology, data collection | >80% baseline capture, methodology documented | Internal |
| Institutional Groundwork (Quiet) | Identify vet academics, begin relationship cultivation | 1-2 warm relationships by seed raise | Internal |
North Star Metrics (Seed Raise Gates)¶
| Metric | Target | Stop-Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Box-2 Retention | ≥70% | <60% triggers pricing/product review |
| Blended CAC | £70-90 by Month 5-6 | >£120 sustained triggers channel review |
| CPD (Normalized) | £19-21 | >£25 blocks Phase B expansion |
| Frozen-Solid Delivery | ≥95% | <90% blocks geographic expansion |
| Contribution/box | £18-24 (M0-3) → £22-26 (M6) | <£15 blocks scaling investment |
| Lab Turnaround | 2-3 days average | >4 days sustained triggers lab audit |
CPD Terminology: "Normalized CPD" = total delivery cost ÷ boxes delivered, including £2.25/box imputed labor for planning consistency (founder fulfillment = £0 cash during Phase A). All Phase targets use Normalized CPD.
Customer Target: 300-500 (London pilot) ARR Run-Rate: £312k-£520k Geography: SW/W/NW/N London postcodes (80k-120k addressable dogs)
Operational Priorities¶
Pre-Launch (Months -2 to 0): - ✅ Pricing locked: 8kg £89 / 12kg £109 / 16kg £129 (inc-VAT) - → Co-packer selected with written quote showing volume step-downs - → Lab partnership confirmed (UKAS-accredited, 2-3 day SLA, logo usage rights) * Sampling schema: Composite sample (n=5 units per batch) for PCR/immunoassay testing * Backup lab trigger: If >20% of batches exceed 4 days in rolling 30-day window * Backup lab: Pre-qualified with identical protocols, can activate within 48 hours - → 3PL contracts signed with CPD quotes at 100/500 drops per week - → First production batch created with QR-coded packaging - → Proof infrastructure live (batch results pages, PDF publishing, hash sealing) * Incident transparency: Held/destroyed batches labeled on portal with reason codes and disposal records * Privacy compliance: Portal hosts batch COAs and ingredient lot data only; no customer PII stored; GDPR-compliant logging - → Calculator V2.1 deployed (RER/MER, multipet, geographic validation) - → Lifecycle email sequences built in Customer.io (Day 0/3/7/14/21/28) - → Metabase dashboards: CAC/LTV, daily cohorts, lab turnaround tracking - → Make.com scenarios: Lab PDF parsing, courier alerts, temperature monitoring
Launch Phase (Months 0-3): - Focus: Proving retention and gathering qualitative feedback - CAC expectation: £100-120 (early inefficiency acceptable) - Channels: Instagram ads, Google Search, veterinary referrals (3-5 early adopter practices) - Founder-led fulfillment: Direct involvement in every delivery issue to build intervention playbooks
Optimization Phase (Months 3-6): - Focus: CAC reduction to £70-90 and contribution improvement - Creative testing velocity: 3-5 new ad variants per week - Packaging optimization: Reduce Woolcool/gel ice ratio based on stress test data - Referral mechanics: Launch £20 same-postcode bonus to create density - Veterinary conversion: Systematic outreach using published safety data + FEDIAF verification
AI Operations Buildout (50-60% automation by Month 6)¶
Founder as Systems Architect (Permanent Role): The AI-native operations moat depends on founder retention of architectural authority: - Database schema design and query optimization (Supabase PostgreSQL) - Make.com scenario logic and automation workflows - Integration architecture (Shopify, Customer.io, Metabase, APIs) - Operational algorithm development (FEFO allocation, churn prediction, route optimization)
This technical depth is not delegated—Âit's the 18-24 month moat that competitors cannot hire around.
Automated by Month 3: - Lab PDF parsing and hash sealing - Batch-to-QR linking - Courier tracking alerts (out-for-delivery, attempted delivery, temperature excursions) - Basic Customer.io trigger flows (welcome, pre-delivery, post-delivery)
Automated by Month 6: - Temperature audit sampling (5% of deliveries) - Failed payment recovery sequences - Churn risk scoring (basic model: delivery issues + skipped boxes) - Subscription pause/resume workflows - Refund processing with evidence capture
Key Milestones¶
Month 3: - 100-150 customers acquired - First published FEDIAF nutritional panel (switches "designed to be complete" → "independently verified complete") - Box-2 retention data available for first cohort (n≥50) - Initial vet endorsement (1-2 named practices)
Month 6 (Seed Raise Readiness): - 300-500 customers - ≥70% Box-2 retention validated - CAC trending £70-90 - CPD £19-21 normalized with written quotes supporting Phase B step-down to £14-18 - 3-5 vet endorsements with testimonials/logos for site - Proof infrastructure demonstrating 100% batch coverage (no released pathogen failures to date) - Financial model updated with actual cohort data
Capital Strategy¶
Seed Ask: £1.0-1.5M Use of Funds: - 60%: Customer acquisition (CAC £70-90 × 7,000-10,000 customers) - 20%: Inventory buildup and working capital - 15%: Operations Lead hire (Month 7-9) + Marketing Lead (Month 12) - 5%: Tech infrastructure and lab partnerships
Seed Story: We've proven verification expands the market (70%+ retention validates product-market fit), systematized safety at scale (100% batch testing operational), and built category-leading proof infrastructure. Ready to scale London and launch City 2.
Phase B: London Scale & Operational Efficiency (Months 7-18)¶
Goal¶
Establish London dominance, aggressively improve margins through density, and validate repeatable city launch playbook.
North Star Metrics¶
| Metric | Month 12 Target | Month 18 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Customers | 4,000-5,000 | 7,000-10,000 |
| ARR Run-Rate | £4.2-5.2M | £7.3-10.4M |
| Box-2 Retention | ≥70% | ≥72% |
| Blended CAC | £75-85 | £70-85 |
| Referral % | 20% | 25% |
| CPD (Normalized) | £16-18 | £14-18 |
| Contribution/box | £22-26 | £24-28 |
| Co-pack COGS | £3.20-3.60/kg | £2.80-3.10/kg |
Geography: London intensification + City 2 pilot (Manchester or Birmingham, Month 15)
Strategic Priorities¶
1. Logistics Optimization (CPD £22-24 → £14-18)
The single biggest margin lever in Phase B. Target assumes: - London density: 750-1,000 drops per week by Month 18 - Route optimization through postcode clustering - Packaging innovation (reduced insulation through density = faster redelivery) - Hyper-local carrier pilots for dense zones (own-van routes <£8 CPD)
Tactics: - Month 9: Launch waitlist gating by postcode (only open high-density areas) - Month 10: Negotiate pallet trunking rates with 3PL (bulk delivery to regional depot) - Month 12: Test hyper-local carrier in SW London pilot zone (500+ customers) - Month 15: Implement hub-and-spoke for City 2 (avoid nationwide courier rates)
Stop-Rule: If CPD remains >£20 by Month 15 with 5,000+ customers, pause City 2 launch and conduct comprehensive logistics audit.
2. Co-Packer Negotiation (COGS £3.70-4.50 → £2.80-3.10)
Leverage Points: - Volume commitment (50-80 tonnes/month by Month 18) - Dual co-packer strategy for supply resilience - Long-term contract with step-downs at 100t/150t/200t thresholds
Tactics: - Month 8: Issue RFP to 3-4 additional co-packers showing current volumes - Month 10: Negotiate dual-source agreement (70/30 split) with price competition - Month 12: Lock pricing through Phase C with explicit volume step-downs
Stop-Rule: If co-pack remains >£3.40/kg by Month 15, this becomes a key input to the Month 16-17 manufacturing decision (strengthens case for Option B).
3. Veterinary Conversion Program
Goal: 10 named practices on site by Month 18 creating authority transfer mechanism.
Tactics: - Month 7: Create "Vet Validation Pack" (1-page safety summary + full lab reports + nutritional panel) - Month 8: Systematic outreach to London practices (30 practices/month, founder-led) - Month 10: Launch "Vet Partner Program" (practice logo on site, dedicated referral tracking, £50 credit per customer) - Month 12: 5 named endorsements achieved (featured on homepage, packaging inserts) - Month 15: Host "Verification Standards" veterinary seminar (10-15 practices, sponsored by us) - Month 18: 10 named endorsements achieved + 3-5 quotes for marketing use
Stop-Rule: If <5 vet endorsements by Month 15, conduct qualitative research to understand barrier (safety data insufficient? FEDIAF verification not credible? Pricing resistance?).
4. Acquisition Optimization
Goal: CAC £70-85 blended with 25% referrals by Month 18.
Channels: - Paid: Instagram/Facebook (50%), Google Search (20%), YouTube (10%) - Organic: Referrals (25%), Content/SEO (5%)
Tactics: - Month 7: Launch referral program 2.0 (£20 referrer + £20 referee, same-postcode bonus £10) - Month 9: Implement creative testing framework (3-5 variants/week, 7-day read, kill/scale/iterate) - Month 12: Launch "Published Proof" creative angle emphasizing verification vs competitors' "trust us" - Month 15: Test veterinary partnership ads ("Recommended by [Practice Name]") - Month 18: Optimize for payback period (front-load larger box sizes in calculator)
Stop-Rule: If blended CAC >£95 sustained for 8 weeks, pause acquisition and diagnose (creative fatigue? market saturation? competitive response?).
5. Verified Raw Treats Launch (Month 9-11)
Strategic Rationale: Lift ARPU 6-10% through batch-verified freeze-dried treats without compromising operational efficiency or brand positioning.
Launch Gates (All Must Be Met): - ✅ Phase A complete (300-500 customers, Box-2 ≥70%) - ✅ Seed closed (£1.0-1.5M raised) - ✅ 3PL transition stable (pick/pack workflows operational, error rate <2%) - ✅ CPD on track (trending toward £16-18) - ✅ Proof portal operational (50+ published batch reports, zero technical issues)
Product Specifications: - Launch SKU: Freeze-dried lamb lung, 80g pouch @ £6.99 inc-VAT - Expand to 2-3 max only if metrics hit (≥20% attach, ≥£0.80 contribution) - Freeze-dried format (ambient storage, zero CPD impact) - Non-negotiable: Batch-verified with published COAs and QR codes on pouches
Unit Economics: - COGS: £1.60-2.35 per unit - Contribution: £3.20-4.00 per unit (55-69% margin) - Target attach rate: 20-30% - Net order contribution lift: £0.80-1.20 (at 25% attach) - ARPU lift: +£70-120 annually (£1,180 → £1,250-1,300)
Go-to-Market: - Month 10: Soft launch to Phase A cohort (100-200 customers, measure baseline attach) - Month 11: Full rollout via checkout upsell, subscription add-on, proof page CTA - Messaging: "The only freeze-dried treats with published batch testing"
Success Metrics (Month 13 evaluation): - Attach rate ≥20% (target: 25-30%) - Incremental contribution ≥£0.80/order - Zero micro failures on released lots - Pick/pack time increase <60s/order
Stop-Rules: - If attach <15% after 8 weeks → Re-merchandise or pivot - If contribution <£0.60/order → Review COGS or pause - If micro failure rate >5% → Halt, audit supplier
Operational Integration: - Jamie sources UK Cat-3 freeze-dried supplier with per-lot COA provision (Month 9) - Pick/pack SOP: Add 30-45s per order (FEFO allocation, QR application) - Make.com scenarios: Order ingestion, FEFO logic, QR generation, proof portal linking - Metabase dashboard: Attach rate, contribution per order, inventory days-of-supply
Brand Moat Extension: - Extends 18-24 month verification lag to treat category - "Only verified treats" positioning defensible against competitors - Reinforces "proof, not promises" across all products
6. Outcomes Data Accumulation (NEW in v2.4)
| Checkpoint | Timing | Data Captured |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Signup | Coat condition, stool quality, energy level, weight, known health issues |
| Box 2 | ~4 weeks | Early transition changes |
| Box 6 | ~12 weeks | Medium-term outcomes |
| Box 13 | ~6 months | Longitudinal trend data |
Target: 12+ months of structured health data from 1,000+ dogs by Month 18.
Ring-fenced Budget: £2-5k/month protected from cuts for outcomes infrastructure (research tools, questionnaire optimization, data analysis).
7. Institutional Relationship Development (NEW in v2.4)
| Phase | Relationship Level | Activities |
|---|---|---|
| Phase A | Advisor (informal) | Coffee meetings, data sharing, input on methodology |
| Phase B | Partner (semi-formal) | Named on website as "Scientific Advisor", input on health questionnaire design |
| Phase C | Validator (formal) | Co-author published research, provide testimonials, conference participation |
Target: 1-2 vet academic advisors announced by Month 18.
Month 12-14: Technical Bandwidth Assessment (NEW in v2.4)¶
Context: The manufacturing decision (Month 16-17) requires extending the operations platform into new domains: raw material inventory, production scheduling, yield management, equipment monitoring.
Decision: Can founder capacity support manufacturing domain extension alongside CEO responsibilities?
Decision Hierarchy: 1. Default: Founder designs and implements manufacturing system extensions (£0 additional cost) 2. If bandwidth constrained: Fractional implementation help (~£5-15k for 10-20 hrs/week advisory) 3. If still bottlenecked: 12-18 month contract engineer (~£60-80k)
Key constraint: Any external technical help works below the architecture line. Founder retains authority over schema design, release logic, and system invariants. This is the moat.
See Business Plan v2.2 "Month 12-14: Technical Bandwidth Assessment" for full decision framework.
AI Operations Scaling (70-80% automation by Month 18)¶
Automated by Month 12: - Predictive churn model (delivery issues + skip frequency + survey sentiment) - Automated intervention workflows (at-risk customer = £10 credit offer + CS outreach) - Temperature audit expansion (10% of deliveries with automated flagging) - Batch allocation optimization (FEFO logic + regional demand forecasting)
Automated by Month 18: - LTV optimization (dynamic box size recommendations based on household profile) - Inventory reorder triggers (co-packer lead time + safety stock + seasonal adjustment) - Courier performance scoring (SLA violations trigger automated escalation) - Customer lifetime cohort analysis (daily refresh in Metabase)
Team Expansion¶
Month 7-9: Operations Lead (First Post-Seed Hire)
Profile: Founder's partner, currently Agent Onboarding Supervisor at RIA Money Transfers. Promoted to supervisor rapidly due to strong process execution and attention to detail. Masters in Social Work (Spain); moved to London in early 20s seeking better opportunities. Hard-working, meticulous, proven track record scaling operational systems in compliance-heavy environment.
Why This Hire Works: - Process excellence: Demonstrated ability to build, document, and execute operational processes at scale - Compliance rigor: Experience in regulated financial services environment translates directly to FSA/DEFRA food safety compliance - Meticulous execution: RIA's agent onboarding requires zero-error accuracy; same standard needed for batch verification and proof system integrity - Rapid learner: Promoted to supervisor quickly despite no prior network in London—Âdemonstrates drive and capability - Cultural alignment: Shares founder's systematic, evidence-based approach; understands "proof, not promises" instinctively - Founder-level commitment: 0.5% equity stake + mission alignment ensures long-term dedication
Role: - Reports to: Founder (systems architect) - Remit: Day-to-day operational execution across fulfillment, customer success, compliance, and logistics
Core Responsibilities:
Customer Operations: - Own customer service execution (Intercom/Gorgias, SOP adherence, NPS tracking) - Execute churn intervention playbooks (at-risk customer outreach, retention protocols) - Design and refine onboarding sequences (draws on RIA onboarding supervisor experience) - Surface customer insights and operational friction points to founder
Fulfillment & Logistics: - Coordinate daily with 3PL (order fulfillment, delivery exceptions, SLA tracking) - Execute CPD optimization tactics (route analysis, packaging tests, carrier coordination) - Run temperature audit program (sampling, data collection, intervention protocols) - Monitor automated workflows (Make.com alert triage, escalate errors to founder)
Compliance & Quality: - Maintain FSA documentation and audit readiness (draws on financial services compliance background) - Coordinate lab sample submission and results verification - Execute batch release protocols (verify clearance before shipment) - Own proof portal quality checks (QR codes, PDF publishing, data integrity)
Product Operations: - Support treats launch logistics (pick/pack SOP updates, FEFO inventory management) - Coordinate with Jamie (commercial advisor) on co-packer production schedules - Manage inventory levels using founder's forecasting models
Does NOT Own: - System architecture (database, automation logic, integration design) - Make.com scenario development (founder builds; Operations Lead monitors) - Strategic technology decisions (founder retains permanently)
Compensation: - Base: £50k annually - Equity: 0.5% (4-year vest, quarterly, 1-year cliff from start date) - Total package: ~£55-60k equivalent at seed valuation
Success Metrics (Month 12 Evaluation): - Operational KPIs consistently met: * Frozen-solid delivery ≥95% * Lab turnaround ≤3 days average * On-time delivery ≥90% * Customer service NPS ≥50 - Founder freed ≥50% for high-leverage systems architecture and fundraising - Treats launch executed smoothly (≥20% attach rate by Month 13) - Zero FSA compliance issues or audit findings - Cultural exemplar: Models "systematic, not emotional" operational approach
Timing Rationale: - Month 7-9 hire (post-seed) allows founder to architect systems solo in Phase A - Seed funding de-risks compensation - 3PL transition (Month 7-8) creates natural inflection point for operational support - Phase B growth trajectory (4k-10k customers) requires dedicated execution resource
Jamie (Commercial Advisor) Continued Role: - Advisory relationship continues (3-4 hrs/week through Month 24) - Operations Lead coordinates with Jamie on 3PL/co-packer day-to-day - Jamie handles supplier negotiations and commercial terms - Clear division: Operations Lead = execution; Jamie = commercial strategy/relationships - Compensation: 0.75-1.0% equity (2-year vest, quarterly, 3-month cliff) - No full-time conversion: Advisory relationship winds down Month 24 after 2-year commitment
Month 12: Marketing Lead - Owns: Paid acquisition, creative testing, referral program, veterinary partnerships - Reports to: Founder - Compensation: £55-70k + 0.3-0.5% equity
Month 15: Customer Success Lead (if Box-2 retention drifts <70%) - Owns: Churn intervention, customer education, NPS feedback loops - Reports to: Marketing Lead - Compensation: £45-55k + 0.2-0.3% equity
Key Milestones¶
Month 12: - 4,000-5,000 customers (London) - CPD £16-18 (meaningful progress toward target) - 5 named vet endorsements - Referrals driving 20% of acquisition - Treats launched with 20-25% attach rate - City 2 site selection and logistics mapping complete
Month 18 (Series A Readiness): - 7,000-10,000 customers (London + City 2 launched) - CPD £14-18 (target achieved) - 10 named vet endorsements - Referrals driving 25% of acquisition - Treats attach 25-30% (ARPU £1,250-1,300) - Repeatable city playbook documented (4 months to 1,000 customers) - Co-pack step-down to £2.80-3.10/kg secured
Manufacturing Decision: A Conviction Bet (Month 16-17)¶
The manufacturing decision is made at Month 16-17, before the Series A raise. This is a conviction bet based on Phase B trajectory data, not proof of £30-40M ARR (which won't exist until Series A is deployed).
Competitive Precedent: - Bella & Duke: Built in-house facility at ~£11-19M revenue (FY2021-22). Gross margin improved from 31% to 44%. - Butternut Box: Built Rudie's Kitchen (200,000 sq ft) at ~£10-20M revenue (2020-21). Foundation for £280M+ raises.
Both made the decision at the revenue stage Protocol Raw will be at during Series A.
Decision Inputs (Month 16-17):
| Metric | Threshold for Option B (In-House) |
|---|---|
| Box-2 Retention | ≥70% sustained at scale (3+ cohorts) |
| City 2 Replication | 4-month playbook achieving 1,000+ customers |
| Co-packer COGS Trajectory | Hitting step-downs (£2.80-3.10/kg by M12) |
| CAC Efficiency | £70-90 blended, stable or improving |
| Referral Rate | Trending to 25% |
| Path 2 Intent | High conviction on EU expansion |
Option B is only chosen if all Phase B thresholds are met; this is a high-confidence, not mixed-signal, decision.
Decision Framework: - ✓ Option B (In-House): All thresholds met + Path 2 intent → Raise £12-17M (includes £1.25-2.0M capex) - ✗ Option A (Co-Packing): Mixed metrics OR Path 1 preferred → Raise £10-15M
The decision determines Series A raise size and is not revisited annually. Once committed, execution focus shifts to facility buildout (if Option B) or long-term co-packer agreement (if Option A).
Capital Strategy¶
Series A Ask: £10-20M (determined by Month 16-17 manufacturing decision) - Option A (Co-packing): £10-15M - Option B (In-house): £12-17M
Use of Funds (Option A - Co-Packing): - 50%: National expansion (3-4 cities, £2-3M per city) - 25%: Inventory and working capital - 15%: Team (CMO, Supply Chain Director, Customer Success team) - 10%: EU pilots (Ireland, Netherlands)
Use of Funds (Option B - In-House Manufacturing): - 40%: National expansion (3-4 cities) - 25%: Manufacturing facility (£1.25-2.0M capex, lease/fit-out, equipment, DEFRA licensing) - 20%: Inventory and working capital - 10%: Team (CMO, Supply Chain Director, Production Manager) - 5%: EU pilots (Ireland, Netherlands)
Series A Story: We've proven category expansion (verified raw converts fresh feeders), built operational leverage (£14-18 CPD with positive contribution), and established category leadership (10+ vet endorsements). [If Option B: We're committing to owned manufacturing based on strong Phase B metrics and competitive precedent"â€Bella & Duke and Butternut Box both made this decision at similar scale.] Ready for national scale and EU validation.
Phase C: National Expansion & Category Leadership (Months 19-36 / Year 3)¶
Goal¶
Replicate London playbook in 3-4 major cities, establish Protocol Raw as UK market standard, and pilot EU entry.
North Star Metrics¶
| Metric | Month 24 Target | Month 36 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Customers | 15,000-20,000 | 35,000-45,000 |
| Cities | 3-4 | 4-5 + 2 EU pilots |
| ARR Run-Rate | £15.6-20.8M | £36.4-46.8M |
| Box-2 Retention | ≥72% | ≥73% |
| Blended CAC | £65-75 | £60-75 |
| Referral % | 30% | 35% |
| CPD (Normalized, National) | £10-12 | £8-10 |
| Contribution/box | £24-27 | £25-28 |
| Co-pack COGS | £2.70-3.00/kg | £2.60-2.90/kg |
Geography: London + Manchester + Birmingham + Bristol + Leeds + [Dublin/Amsterdam EU pilots]
Strategic Priorities¶
1. City Launch Playbook (4 Months to 1,000 Customers)
Pre-Launch (Month -2 to 0): - Identify high-density premium postcodes (Zoopla + pet ownership data) - Secure regional 3PL partnership (2-3 day delivery SLA, CPD <£12) - Map 10-15 target veterinary practices for early outreach - Build city-specific landing pages (local SEO, vet endorsements) - Seed waitlist (500-1,000 emails via local dog walking groups, vet practices)
Launch Phase (Month 0-2): - 200-300 customers from waitlist conversion - Founder presence for first 100 deliveries (troubleshooting, qualitative feedback) - Vet outreach (5 practices secured by Month 2) - Local PR (city magazine features, dog-friendly café partnerships)
Growth Phase (Month 2-4): - Scale to 1,000 customers via paid acquisition (Instagram geo-targeting, Google) - Referral mechanics optimized (same-postcode bonuses for density) - Route optimization with 3PL based on actual delivery patterns - 3-5 vet endorsements featured on city landing page
Stop-Rule: If city doesn't reach 500 customers by Month 2, pause acquisition and diagnose (logistics issues? poor product-market fit? competitive saturation?).
2. National Logistics Infrastructure
Hub-and-Spoke Model: - Central co-packer (existing) - 2-3 regional hubs (Manchester, Birmingham for national coverage) - Pallet trunking overnight (CPD <£2 for trunk leg) - Local 3PL last-mile delivery (CPD £6-8 per drop)
Tactics: - Month 20: Negotiate regional hub partnerships (cold storage + 24-hour holding) - Month 24: Transition Manchester/Birmingham to hub model - Month 28: Add Bristol/Leeds hubs based on density - Month 36: National CPD £8-10 achieved (blended hub + direct)
Stop-Rule: If national CPD remains >£12 by Month 30 and Option A (co-packing) was chosen at Series A, revisit logistics architecture before Phase D scaling.
3. Trade Channel Introduction (10-15% of Revenue)
Rationale: - Boosts volume for co-packer step-downs - Increases brand visibility in premium retail - Provides acquisition funnel (retail trial → DTC subscription)
Target Partners: - Independent premium pet shops (30-50 locations) - Veterinary clinics (10-15 practices with retail) - Premium grocers (Whole Foods, Planet Organic pilot)
Economics: - Trade price: £75-80 per 12kg box (ex-VAT) vs £90.83 DTC - Lower contribution but CAC £0 - Goal: 15-20% of trade customers convert to DTC within 6 months
Tactics: - Month 22: Pilot with 5 independent shops in London - Month 26: Expand to 20-30 shops nationally - Month 30: Launch vet clinic retail program - Month 36: 10-15% of revenue from trade (maintains 85-90% DTC core)
Stop-Rule: If trade CAC (calculated as contribution loss vs DTC) >£60, limit to veterinary clinics only (higher conversion rate).
4. EU Pilot Launches
Dublin Launch (Month 24): - English-speaking, premium market, regulatory aligned - Target: 500-750 customers by Month 30 - Test: FEDIAF compliance portability, cross-border logistics, ARPU £950-1,040
Amsterdam Launch (Month 28): - High English proficiency, premium segment, eco-conscious culture - Target: 500-750 customers by Month 34 - Test: Non-English marketing, EU logistics networks, ARPU £950-1,040
Stop-Rule: If EU pilots don't achieve 500 customers and 65%+ Box-2 retention by Month 6 of launch, pause EU expansion and focus on UK optimization.
AI Operations Maturity (80-85% automation)¶
Predictive Systems: - Churn prediction 14 days in advance (85%+ accuracy) - Lifetime value forecasting by cohort - Seasonal demand modeling (inventory optimization) - Courier performance prediction (rerouting logic)
Autonomous Workflows: - Customer onboarding/offboarding - Subscription management (pause/resume/skip) - Refund processing with evidence capture - Temperature compliance (100% monitored, 10% physical audit) - Batch-to-customer traceability (recall readiness)
Team Expansion¶
Month 20: CMO - Owns: All marketing, brand, acquisition, retention - Reports to: Founder - Compensation: £80-100k + 0.5-0.8% equity
Month 22: Supply Chain Director - Owns: Co-packer relationships, logistics network, inventory management - Reports to: Founder - Compensation: £70-90k + 0.4-0.6% equity - Note: Works with Jamie (advisor) during transition; Jamie's advisory relationship winds down Month 24
Month 24: Head of Customer Success - Owns: Retention programs, customer education, NPS, support team (2-3 FTEs) - Reports to: CMO - Compensation: £60-75k + 0.3-0.5% equity
Month 24-30: COO Hire Evaluation
Key Decision: Is Operations Lead the right person to scale to COO (managing 35k-45k customers, national logistics, eventual manufacturing)?
If YES (Operations Lead has scaled exceptionally): - Promote to Head of Operations (Month 24) - Compensation refresh: £60-75k + equity top-up (0.2-0.3% additional) - Begin building ops team underneath (CS Lead, Logistics Coordinator)
If NO (Operations Lead is execution-strong but not strategic/scalable): - Keep as Senior Operations Manager (valuable contributor, not leadership track) - Hire experienced COO (Month 24-30): * Profile: 5-10 years food/frozen operations, scaled D2C or CPG brand to 20k+ customers * Proven track record: Managed multi-city logistics, owned manufacturing transitions, built ops teams * Strategic + Operational: Can design systems AND execute flawlessly * Compensation: £70-90k + 0.8-1.2% equity * Reports to: Founder (CEO) * Remit: Owns ALL operational execution (fulfillment, logistics, manufacturing, CS, compliance) * Relationship with founder: Founder retains tech/systems architecture; COO owns operational delivery
Critical: COO must have food/frozen supply chain experience to execute manufacturing buildout (if Option B chosen at Series A) or optimize co-packer relationships (if Option A), and navigate regulatory complexity (FSA, DEFRA, FEDIAF compliance).
Month 30: EU Operations Lead (if pilots successful) - Owns: EU logistics, regulatory compliance, local partnerships - Reports to: Supply Chain Director - Compensation: £55-70k + 0.3-0.4% equity
Key Milestones¶
Month 24: - 15,000-20,000 customers (4 cities operational) - National CPD £10-12 - 15+ vet endorsements (national coverage) - Trade channel contributing 5-8% of revenue - Dublin pilot launched (500+ customers by Month 30)
Month 36 (Series B Readiness): - 35,000-45,000 customers (4-5 UK cities + 2 EU pilots) - National CPD £8-10 - 25+ vet endorsements - Trade channel contributing 10-15% of revenue - EU pilots validated (1,000-1,500 customers, 65%+ retention) - Clear path to profitability (contribution covering fixed costs by Month 42)
Capital Strategy¶
Series B Ask: £30-50M (if Pan-European path chosen)
Use of Funds (If Option B/UK Manufacturing Already Operational): - 60%: EU multi-market expansion (Germany £5-8M, France £5-8M, Benelux £3-5M, Nordics £4-6M) - 20%: Working capital and inventory (multi-country stock) - 10%: Team (EU leadership, local marketing, supply chain) - 10%: EU manufacturing facility (if UK facility successful and EU scaling warrants)
Use of Funds (If Option A/Co-Packing Continued): - 55%: EU multi-market expansion - 25%: Working capital and inventory - 10%: Team - 10%: UK manufacturing (if now justified by scale) OR EU co-packer partnerships
EU Manufacturing Decision (Series B): - Only considered if UK manufacturing (Option B) was successful - Decision based on EU customer count (50k+ EU customers) and logistics cost structure - Capex: £5-8M for EU facility (Netherlands or Germany - central distribution) - Payback: 24-30 months at 50k+ EU customers
Series B Story: We've established UK category leadership (35k-45k customers, 25+ vet endorsements, national coverage), proven unit economics at scale (£8-10 CPD, £25-28 contribution, 35% referrals), validated EU portability (Dublin/Amsterdam pilots successful). [If Option B: Our UK manufacturing facility is operational and profitable, providing margin advantage and R&D capability.] Ready to become pan-European verified raw leader.
Phase D: £70-89M ARR & Strategic Exit Readiness (Months 37-60 / Year 5)¶
Goal¶
Achieve Growth Case target (£70-89M ARR, 68k-86k customers), establish market leadership, and position for strategic exit or Series B.
North Star Metrics (UK-Only Growth Case)¶
| Metric | Month 48 Target | Month 60 Target |
|---|---|---|
| Customers | 50,000-60,000 | 68,000-86,000 |
| ARR | £52-62M | £70-89M |
| Box-2 Retention | ≥73% | ≥73% |
| Blended CAC | £60-75 | £60-75 |
| Referral % | 35% | 35% |
| CPD (Normalized) | £8-10 | £8-10 |
| Contribution/box (Option A) | £27-30 | £28-32 |
| Contribution/box (Option B) | £34-38 | £36-42 |
| COGS (Option A - Co-packed) | £2.50-2.80/kg | £2.40-2.70/kg |
| COGS (Option B - In-house) | £1.90-2.30/kg | £1.80-2.20/kg |
Geography: National UK coverage + EU scaled expansion (if Series B raised)
Strategic Priorities¶
1. Manufacturing Execution (If Option B Chosen at Series A)
At 50k+ customers, in-house production economics become compelling:
1. Manufacturing Execution (If Option B Chosen at Series A)
By Phase D, the manufacturing decision was made at Month 16-17 (before Series A). This section applies only if Option B (in-house manufacturing) was chosen.
Phase D Manufacturing Status (If Option B): - Facility operational by Month 30-36 (after 12-18 month buildout) - Production fully transitioned from co-packer by Month 36-42 - COGS at £1.80-2.20/kg (vs £2.40-2.70/kg co-packed) - Contribution at £36-42/box (vs £30-32/box co-packed)
Ongoing Optimization: - Capacity scaling to match customer growth (50k → 85k customers) - Production efficiency improvements (yield optimization, waste reduction) - R&D capability for format extensions (convenience packs, puppy-specific) - Supply resilience: Co-packer maintained as backup capacity (10-20% of production)
If Option A (Co-Packing) Was Chosen: - Continue co-packer relationship with negotiated volume step-downs - COGS target: £2.40-2.70/kg (floor achieved) - Contribution ceiling: £30-32/box - Exit multiple: 8-10× ARR (vs 10-12× with manufacturing)
Note: The manufacturing decision is not revisited in Phase D. If Option A was chosen at Series A, the focus shifts to maximizing co-packer efficiency and preparing for exit at 8-10× multiple. In-house manufacturing is only reconsidered if a Series B is raised for EU expansion (EU facility decision).
2. Format Extensions
Puppy Formula Launch (Month 40): - Addresses £240M puppy segment (currently served by All Life Stages but some owners prefer puppy-specific) - FEDIAF Growth-specific formulation - Economics: Same ARPU (£1,040), higher engagement (new puppy energy) - Target: 10-15% of new customer mix by Month 48
Convenience Format (Month 45): - Pre-portioned tiles or smaller bricks (200g-300g vs current 500g) - Addresses travel, multi-dog households, portion control - Price premium: 15-20% vs bulk - Target: 20-25% of customers using convenience SKU by Month 60
Stop-Rule: Only launch format extensions if data proves demand (>500 customer requests, <5% churn attributed to format limitations).
3. Category Leadership Consolidation
Vet Endorsement Network: - 50+ named practices by Month 48 - 100+ by Month 60 - "Protocol Raw Verified" badge program for vet clinics - Annual "Verification Standards in Veterinary Nutrition" conference (200+ attendees)
Industry Positioning: - FEDIAF working group participation (UK representative on standards committee) - Published research collaboration (university partnership on raw feeding safety) - Media strategy: Position founder as category thought leader (podcasts, articles, conferences)
4. Exit Preparation
Acquirer Targets: - Nestlé Purina: UK category leader position + tech platform - Mars Petcare: Verification infrastructure + premium positioning - VAFO (Husse): European expansion vehicle + operations platform - PE Roll-Up: Platform acquisition for multi-brand consolidation
Exit Readiness Checklist (Month 48-60): - → Financial audit (clean books, 3 years of history) - → Legal clean-up (IP ownership, employment contracts, supplier agreements) - → Data room preparation (all operational SOPs, tech documentation, customer data) - → Management presentation deck (investment thesis, growth trajectory, integration plan) - → Competitive process (engage M&A advisor, contact 5-7 strategic acquirers)
Valuation Expectations:
| Scenario | ARR | Multiple | Exit Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | £42-54M | 7-8× | £294-432M |
| Expected | £56-71M | 7-9× | £392-639M |
| Growth | £70-89M | 7-10× | £490-890M |
| Growth + Manufacturing | £70-89M | 10-12× | £700M-£1.07B |
Pan-European Scenario (if Series B executed): - UK: £83-104M ARR - EU: £60-81M ARR (Germany, France, Benelux, Nordics) - Combined: £143-185M ARR - Exit Value (8-12×): £1.14B-£2.22B
Key Milestones¶
Month 48: - 50,000-60,000 customers - £52-62M ARR - Manufacturing feasibility study complete - Puppy formula launched (5-10% of mix) - 50+ vet endorsements - If Series B path: 3-4 EU markets operational
Month 60 (Exit Readiness): - 68,000-86,000 customers (Growth Case) - £70-89M ARR - National market leadership established - 100+ vet endorsements - Convenience formats contributing 20-25% - Manufacturing operational and profitable (if Option B) or co-packer relationship optimized (if Option A) - Exit process initiated or Series B closed
Execution Principles: How We Operate¶
1. Proof, Not Promises¶
Every customer-facing claim must be verifiable: - "Independently tested" → QR code to published lab results - "Complete nutrition" → Link to FEDIAF panel - "100% released batches cleared" → Public batch database (test-and-release policy ensures no contaminated batch reaches customers) - "Vet recommended" → Named practices with logos
No marketing speak. No "premium" or "quality" without evidence. Systematic language only.
2. Scale First¶
Build for 100,000+ customers from day one: - Database indexes on high-query fields (customer_id, batch_id, order_created_at) - Automated monitoring (lab turnaround, courier SLA, temperature compliance) - Comprehensive error handling (failed payments, delivery exceptions, batch test failures) - Modular codebase (easy to add new cities, new formats, new markets)
Never build a "temporary" solution that creates tech debt. Always build production-grade.
Founder Retains Systems Architecture Permanently: This is the 18-24 month technical moat. Operations hires execute within founder-designed systems, never own system architecture itself.
3. Systematic, Not Emotional¶
Data-driven decisions with explicit stop-rules: - CAC >£95 for 8 weeks → Pause acquisition, diagnose issue - Box-2 retention <60% → Pricing/product review - CPD >£20 with 5,000+ customers → Comprehensive logistics audit - EU pilot <500 customers by Month 6 → Pause expansion, focus UK
No "founder conviction" overrides. Metrics decide.
4. Defend the Moats¶
Prioritize activities that compound competitive advantage: - Proof Infrastructure: Every batch tested, every result published (18-24 month trust capital) - Operational Rigor: Test-and-release protocol at scale (12-18 months to operationalize) - All Life Stages: Lifetime customer capture (6-12 months formulation + validation) - AI-Native Operations: 70-80% automation (12-18 months to build + refine) * Founder systems architecture: Permanent retention of technical depth - Brand Equity: Vet endorsement flywheel (24-36 months to compound)
These create 36-42 month cumulative lag. Protect them fiercely.
5. Uphold the Strategy¶
Single decisions that are permanently settled: - ✅ Single SKU (Protocol Raw Complete - All Life Stages) - ✅ Premium pricing (£89/£109/£129 inc-VAT) - ✅ RER/MER-based calculator (veterinary-standard feeding volumes) - ✅ Test-and-release protocol (every batch, before customer shipment) - ✅ Published proof (QR codes to independent lab results) - ✅ FEDIAF compliance (Growth & Reproduction = All Life Stages)
These are not open for re-litigation. Execute the plan.
6. Lead with the Feeling, Back with the System (NEW in v2.4)¶
Customer outcome sentence comes first. Proof artifacts appear as support, not as hooks.
"Raw feeding you don't have to worry about" → then explain the system that makes it true.
The verification infrastructure exists to deliver the outcome. The outcome is not a byproduct of the infrastructure.
7. The "Worry Goes Away" Test (NEW in v2.4)¶
Release gate for all customer-facing materials:
"Does this make the worry go away, or does it just explain our systems?"
Materials that explain systems without delivering emotional resolution fail the test. Apply to: homepage, emails, ads, proof portal, calculator results, packaging copy.
Risk Management & Contingencies¶
Operational Risks¶
1. Cold-Chain Failure at Scale
Risk: Frozen-solid delivery rate falls below 95% during summer or with geographic expansion.
Mitigation: - Stringent 3PL audits (quarterly site visits, monthly performance reviews) - Regional hub strategy (reduces courier transit time) - Real-time temperature tracking (automated 5-10% audit program) - Packaging innovation (48-hour stress testing in summer conditions)
Contingency: If sustained <90% frozen-solid delivery, pause expansion, switch carriers or implement insulation upgrade (accept temporary CPD increase).
2. Lab Turnaround Degradation
Risk: Lab turnaround exceeds 4 days consistently, creating inventory holding costs and release delays.
Mitigation: - Dual lab partnership (primary + backup) - SLA with financial penalties for >4 day turnaround - University-affiliated labs prioritized (research incentive = capacity flexibility) - Backup lab trigger: If >20% of batches exceed 4 days in rolling 30-day window
Contingency: If sustained >4 day turnaround, accelerate backup lab relationship or negotiate rush fee structure.
3. Co-Packer Supply Disruption
Risk: Single co-packer failure (equipment breakdown, regulatory issue, capacity constraint).
Mitigation: - Dual co-packer strategy by Phase C (70/30 split) - 6-8 week inventory buffer (safety stock) - Pre-negotiated backup co-packer agreements (90-day activation SLA)
Contingency: If primary co-packer fails, activate backup within 48 hours, communicate transparently with customers (delay vs substitute).
Market Risks¶
4. CAC Inflation / Competitive Response
Risk: Competitors increase spending or copy verification messaging, driving CAC >£120 sustained.
Mitigation: - Strong referral engine (target 35% at £0 CAC) - Vet endorsement network (organic authority transfer) - "Published Proof" differentiation (not just "tested" but "published") - Trade channel for efficient volume (10-15% at £0 CAC)
Contingency: If sustained CAC >£120, reduce target growth rate, prioritize retention over acquisition, expand referral bonuses.
5. Retention Drift at Scale
Risk: Box-2 retention falls below 65% as customer acquisition broadens beyond early adopters.
Mitigation: - AI-driven predictive churn models (activated at 1,000 customers) - Automated intervention workflows (£10 credit offer + CS outreach for at-risk customers) - "No one churns without a conversation" culture in Phase A to build playbooks - Continuous qualitative feedback collection (NPS surveys, exit interviews)
Contingency: If sustained <65% retention, hire Customer Success Lead, implement proactive education program, consider onboarding improvements.
6. Category Expansion Thesis Fails
Risk: Verified transparency does NOT expand category 1.5-2.5× (Conservative/Growth scenarios don't materialize).
Impact: Revenue targets lower but unit economics remain intact.
Mitigation: - Conservative Plan Can Still Fund: All hiring, capital, profitability gates designed to clear at 1.5× expansion (£383M market) - Focus on existing raw + partial fresh conversion (£255M + 30-50% of £305M fresh = £350-407M addressable) - Maintain strong unit economics (CAC £60-75, contribution £25-28, 73% retention)
Contingency: If by Month 24 market share trajectory implies <£42M ARR by Year 5, slow hiring, extend Phase B duration, prioritize profitability over growth rate. Exit value £294-540M still attractive.
Strategic Risks¶
7. "Verified Cooked" Competitive Response
Risk: Butternut Box launches "independently tested cooked" with published results, neutralizing our differentiation.
Why This Matters: If Butternut Box (£150M revenue, established brand) adds verification, they combine our moat (proof) with their moat (cooking = perceived safety).
Mitigation: - Raw nutritional superiority (bioavailable nutrients, digestibility data) - All Life Stages positioning (Butternut Box is adult-only) - Vet endorsement network (raw feeding advocates) - Time advantage (18-24 month trust capital head start)
Contingency: If competitive verification launched, accelerate vet endorsement program, emphasize raw nutritional benefits, consider strategic partnership with research institution for published study.
8. Single SKU Limitation
Risk: Chicken/beef allergies and puppy exclusion limit TAM.
Current State: Approximately 5-8% of dogs have chicken or beef sensitivities. Puppy segment (£240M) addressed by All Life Stages formulation but some owners prefer puppy-specific.
Mitigation: - All Life Stages formulation captures majority of market (no formula switching = higher LTV) - Puppy formula launch Month 40 (FEDIAF Growth-specific) - Novel protein variant post-Series A if data supports (turkey, duck, or lamb base)
Contingency: If churn analysis shows >10% attributed to protein sensitivities, accelerate novel protein development (6-9 month timeline).
Strategic Risks (NEW in v2.4)¶
9. Narrative Theft
Risk: Competitor claims "We test our food too" without building equivalent infrastructure, collapsing differentiation in public perception.
Why This Matters: Replicating Protocol Raw's infrastructure takes years. Replicating headlines takes a press release.
Mitigation: - Institutional anchors (named vet academics, advisory board) - Published outcomes data (12-18 months accumulation cannot be accelerated) - Proof specificity ("scan QR code to verify" harder to fake than "we test")
Contingency: If competitor launches narrative-matching campaign, accelerate institutional announcement, emphasize proof portal engagement metrics publicly.
10. "Safety Company" Pigeonhole
Risk: Protocol Raw becomes permanently perceived as "the safety raw brand"—respected but narrowly defined.
Why This Matters: Markets form impressions early and update slowly. If every touchpoint screams "SAFETY!" for 18 months, repositioning to "We understand dog health" becomes an uphill battle.
Mitigation: - Curiosity signals in Phase A (health questionnaires framed as "we're tracking how dogs respond") - Outcomes infrastructure begins immediately (data collection from Day 1) - Institutional relationships cultivated early - "Proof, not promises" extends naturally from safety to outcomes
Contingency: If customer research shows strong "safety brand only" perception by Month 12, accelerate curiosity signal frequency.
11. Second Moat Neglect
Risk: Outcomes data infrastructure gets deprioritized under growth pressure—leaving Protocol Raw unable to execute Phase B crown transition.
Why This Matters: Visible work naturally crowds out invisible work. Governance alone isn't enough under cash/growth/ops pressure.
Mitigation: - Ring-fenced budget: £2-5k/month protected from cuts for outcomes moat - Quarterly review of outcomes data accumulation as standing agenda item - Ownership assigned to founder directly (not delegated to ops)
Contingency: If outcomes data falls behind targets by Month 12, pause one marketing initiative to reallocate focus.
12. "Most Impressive Raw Brand No One Tries"
Risk: Impressive mechanisms that don't feel adoptable. System-first messaging overwhelms outcome-first resonance.
Why This Matters: Protocol Raw could win industry awards while losing customers who find the verification infrastructure intimidating rather than reassuring.
Mitigation: - "Worry Goes Away" litmus test: Release gate for all customer-facing materials - Outcome-first messaging discipline (Brand Voice v1.1) - Customer language tracking (advocacy metric: % using outcome vs mechanism language)
Contingency: If conversion rate underperforms despite high engagement, audit all touchpoints against "Worry Goes Away" test.
Success Metrics Dashboard (North Star KPIs)¶
Unit Economics (Updated Monthly)¶
| Metric | Phase A Target | Phase B Target | Phase C Target | Phase D Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARPU (inc-VAT, Annual) | £1,180* | £1,250-1,300* | £1,250-1,300* | £1,250-1,300* |
| Blended CAC | £70-90 | £70-85 | £60-75 | £60-75 |
| Referral % | 15-25% | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Box-2 Retention | ≥70% | ≥72% | ≥73% | ≥73% |
| CPD (Normalized) | £19-21 | £14-18 | £8-10 | £8-10 |
| Contribution/box | £18-24 (M0-3) → £22-26 (M6) | £24-28 | £25-28 | £28-32 |
| Co-pack COGS | £3.70-4.50/kg | £2.80-3.10/kg | £2.60-2.90/kg | £2.40-2.70/kg |
| LTV:CAC | 13-17× | 17-21× | 19-23× | 19-23× |
| Payback Period | 5-7 months | 4-5 months | 3-4 months | 3-4 months |
Note: ARR projections use Realised ARPU of £1,040 ex-VAT annually, which conservatively assumes ~11.5 boxes/year after accounting for cadence drift (vs theoretical £1,180 at perfect 4-week / 13-box cadence). This matches the Business Plan's conservative ARPU target. Phase A ARR is stated at theoretical ARPU (£1,180) as early cohorts with founder attention are expected to maintain tighter cadence. Treats lift (Phase B+) adds £70-120 annually, bringing Realised ARPU to £1,110-1,160 ex-VAT.
LTV note: The Financial Model's LTV of £1,040 is a different calculation — it uses Theoretical ARPU (£1,180) × average lifespan (10.5/12 years). The identity £1,040 Realised ARPU = £1,040 LTV is coincidental. See Metrics Reconciliation v1.0 for full explanation.
*Phase A base £1,180 inc-VAT, Phase B+ includes treats lift to £1,250-1,300 inc-VAT
LTV:CAC progression: The ratio improvement from 13-17× (Phase A) to 19-23× (Phase C/D) reflects three compounding improvements: (1) CAC declining through referral share growth (15-25% → 35%), (2) ARPU increasing through treats attachment (Phase B+), and (3) LTV extending as retention systems mature and steady-state churn approaches the <4% target. Phase A ratio uses Financial Model conservative LTV (£1,040). Phase B+ ratios assume treats ARPU lift and improving churn — these are operational targets, not conservative model assumptions.
Growth Metrics (Updated Weekly)¶
| Metric | Phase A Target | Phase B Target | Phase C Target | Phase D Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customers | 300-500 | 7k-10k | 35k-45k | 68k-86k |
| ARR | £354k-591k | £7.3-10.4M | £36.4-46.8M | £70-89M |
| Net New Customers/mo→ | 50-80 | 400-700 | 1,500-2,500 | 2,000-3,500 |
| Steady-State Churn/mo‡ | <5% | <4% | <4% | <4% |
| Active Cities | 1 (London) | 2-3 | 4-5 (+2 EU) | 5+ (+4-5 EU) |
→Phase D "Net New 2,000-3,500/mo" includes UK and EU markets combined. UK-only net additions average ~1,700/mo across Phase D to reach the 68k-86k UK customer target. EU pilot markets contribute additional 300-1,500/mo depending on stage.
‡Steady-state churn measures monthly losses from the active subscriber base (customers who have received ≥2 boxes). Box-1 attrition is captured separately by Box-2 Retention in the Unit Economics table above. The Financial Model's 9.5% blended churn rate includes both layers and is used for conservative LTV calculation (£1,040). If steady-state churn achieves the <4% target, actual blended churn would be ~5.4% and LTV ~£1,819. See Financial Model v1.3 Two-Layer Churn Model for full decomposition.
Operational Metrics (Updated Daily)¶
| Metric | Target | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Frozen-Solid Delivery % | ≥95% | <90% triggers audit |
| Lab Turnaround (avg) | 2-3 days | >4 days triggers escalation |
| On-Time Delivery % | ≥90% | <85% triggers carrier review |
| Temperature Excursion Rate | <2% | >5% triggers packaging review |
| Batch Test Pass Rate | 100% released | Any failure = hold-and-dispose |
| Order Fulfillment Time | <24 hours | >48 hours triggers ops review |
Brand & Market Position (Updated Quarterly)¶
| Metric | Phase A Target | Phase B Target | Phase C Target | Phase D Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Named Vet Endorsements | 3-5 | 10 | 25+ | 50-100+ |
| NPS Score | 50+ | 60+ | 65+ | 70+ |
| Organic Traffic (mo) | 500-1,000 | 5k-10k | 25k-50k | 75k-150k |
| PR Mentions (mo) | 1-2 | 5-10 | 15-25 | 30-50 |
| Market Share (Verified Raw) | 0.1-0.2% | 1.5-2.5% | 6-9% | 11-14% |
Outcomes & Institutional Metrics (Updated Quarterly) — NEW in v2.4¶
| Metric | Phase A Target | Phase B Target | Phase C Target | Phase D Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advocacy Language (outcome-framed) | Baseline | >30% | >50% | >60% |
| Health Data Completeness (baseline) | >80% | >80% | >80% | >80% |
| Health Data Completeness (checkpoints) | N/A | >70% | >70% | >70% |
| Institutional Progress | 1-2 warm relationships | 1-2 advisors announced | Advisory board formal | Published research |
| Outcomes Data Months | 0-6 months | 12-18 months | 24-36 months | 48-60 months |
Capital Deployment Timeline¶
Phase A (Months 0-6): £100-150k Founder Capital¶
Allocation: - 50%: Customer acquisition (CAC £100-120 early, improving to £70-90) - 25%: Inventory and first production batch - 15%: Tech infrastructure (Make.com, Customer.io, Metabase subscriptions) - 10%: Packaging, lab partnerships, operational setup
Burn Rate: £15-25k/month
Phase B (Months 7-18): £1.0-1.5M Seed¶
Allocation: - 60%: Customer acquisition (£600-900k for 7k-10k customers at CAC £70-90) - 20%: Inventory buildup and working capital (£200-300k) - 15%: Team (£150-225k for Operations Lead, Marketing Lead) - 5%: Tech infrastructure, lab partnerships, expanded capacity (£50-75k)
Burn Rate: £65-110k/month Runway: 14-18 months to Series A raise
Phase C (Months 19-36): £10-20M Series A¶
Allocation (Option A - Co-Packing Continued): - 50%: National expansion (£5-7.5M for 3-4 cities at £2-3M per city) - 25%: Inventory and working capital (£2.5-3.75M for multi-city operations) - 15%: Team (£1.5-2.25M for CMO, Supply Chain Director, Customer Success team) - 10%: EU pilots (£1-1.5M for Dublin, Amsterdam launches)
Allocation (Option B - In-House Manufacturing): - 40%: National expansion (£6-8M for 3-4 cities) - 25%: Manufacturing facility (£1.25-2.0M for capex, lease/fit-out, equipment, DEFRA licensing) - 20%: Inventory and working capital (£3-4M) - 10%: Team (£1.5-2M for CMO, Supply Chain Director, Production Manager) - 5%: EU pilots (£0.75-1M for Dublin, Amsterdam)
Burn Rate: £400-750k/month Runway: 18-24 months to profitability or Series B
Phase D (Months 37-60): £30-50M Series B (Optional - Pan-European Path)¶
Allocation: - 55-60%: EU multi-market expansion (£16.5-30M for Germany/France/Benelux/Nordics) - 20-25%: Working capital and inventory (£6-12.5M for multi-country stock) - 10%: Team (£3-5M for EU leadership, local marketing, supply chain expansion) - 5-15%: EU manufacturing facility (£1.5-7.5M if UK manufacturing successful and EU scale warrants)
Burn Rate: £600k-1M/month Path to Profitability: Month 48-60 (positive EBITDA with £143-185M combined UK+EU ARR)
Conclusion: The Execution-Ready Roadmap¶
This Growth Strategy document provides the operational playbook to achieve £70-89M ARR by Year 5, capturing 11-14% of the expanded £638M verified raw market.
Key Success Factors:
- Phase A Validation (Months 0-6): Prove 70%+ retention, CAC £70-90, CPD £19-21 → Unlock Seed
- Phase B Efficiency (Months 7-18): CPD £22-24 → £14-18 via density, co-pack step-downs, vet endorsements; Month 16-17: Manufacturing decision (conviction bet based on trajectory) → Unlock Series A
- Phase C Replication (Months 19-36): 4-month city playbook, national CPD £8-10, EU pilots validated; manufacturing buildout (if Option B) or co-packer optimization (if Option A) → Unlock Series B or UK-only exit
- Phase D Leadership (Months 37-60): 68k-86k customers, £70-89M ARR, category dominance → £490-890M exit (UK) or £1.14B-£2.22B (Pan-European)
Competitive Moats (36-42 month cumulative lag): - Proof infrastructure (18-24 months) - Operational rigor (12-18 months) - All Life Stages formulation (6-12 months) - AI-native operations with founder systems architecture (12-18 months) - Brand equity / vet flywheel (24-36 months) - Proprietary manufacturing (if Option B chosen at Series A) - additional 18-24 month advantage
Capital Efficiency: - Seed £1.0-1.5M → 7k-10k customers → £7.3-10.4M ARR - Series A £10-20M → 35k-45k customers → £36.4-46.8M ARR - Series B £30-50M → 150k-185k customers → £143-185M ARR (UK + EU)
We model for Growth, but fund for Conservative. All hiring, capital deployment, and profitability gates must clear at 1.5× market expansion (£383M market, £42-54M ARR). Growth Case is evidence-supported upside, not dependency.
This is the roadmap. Execute systematically.
Document Status: ✅ Production-Ready Next Review: Month 3 (post-launch metrics analysis), Month 6 (pre-seed raise), Month 18 (pre-Series A) Owner: Founder (with input from Operations Lead Month 7+, CMO Month 20+)
Final Sign-Off Edits Applied (v2.1 Final)¶
Patch List Completed: 1. ✅ ARPU units clarified: Table now shows "ARPU (inc-VAT, Annual)" with note explaining ARR uses ex-VAT £1,040 baseline 2. ✅ Pan-EU timing fixed: "Year 8" → "Years 5-8" in Executive Summary to align with pilot timing (M24-36) and scale (M37-60) 3. ✅ Portal privacy added: One-liner under Proof Infrastructure about GDPR compliance and no customer PII storage 4. ✅ CPD consistency maintained: Phase B £14-18 normalized throughout document with clear definition
Document Status: ✅ FINAL - INVESTOR-READY All gaps closed. Ready for circulation.