Protocol Raw Growth Playbook v2.1¶

Status: Execution Playbook — Pre-Launch
Created: February 2026
Owner: Founder
Scope: 0 → 50,000 customers over 36 months
Related: Growth Strategy v2.2 (targets/financials), Business Plan v2.2 (positioning/Two Crowns), Calculator-to-Purchase System (conversion mechanics), Brand Voice v1.1 (outcome-first messaging), SOP-MON-01 (monitoring patterns), Financial Model v1.2 (working capital)

What This Document Is¶

The Growth Strategy defines targets: CAC £70-90, 25% referrals by Month 18, Box-2 retention ≥70%.

This document defines how. The actual step-by-step playbook for how customers find Protocol Raw, why they convert, what makes them stay, and what compounds growth at each phase.

It also defines when to stop. Growth is not just a marketing problem — it is a systems problem. Cash tied up in QA_HOLD inventory, lab turnaround drift, and logistics cost inflation can silently throttle acquisition even when the funnel looks healthy. Every phase includes operational stop-rules alongside marketing metrics.

Every growth phase has a different constraint. At 0 customers, the constraint is credibility. At 500, it's conversion efficiency. At 2,500, it's cost of acquisition. At 10,000, it's repeatability. The playbook adapts to each.

The Core Growth Thesis¶

Protocol Raw does not grow like a dog food brand. Dog food brands grow through shelf space, influencer partnerships, and emotional advertising. We grow through a trust infrastructure that compounds.

The growth model has three layers:

Layer 1 — Content captures intent. People searching "is raw dog food safe" or "raw feeding calculator" find Protocol Raw. We answer their question better than anyone else because we have the verification system to back it up. This is the SEO moat.

Layer 2 — Proof converts visitors. The calculator, the batch reports, the published lab results — these are not features. They are the conversion mechanism. A visitor who calculates their dog's portion and sees published safety data converts at a fundamentally different rate than someone who sees a product page with marketing claims.

Layer 3 — Outcomes retain customers and generate referrals. For many customers, the worry goes away — and the difference they see feels worth sharing. They tell other dog owners. Not because we asked them to, but because the verification gives them something concrete to point to. "The worry is just gone" is the referral sentence that travels.

These three layers compound. More customers means more proof data. More proof data means better content. Better content means more visitors. More visitors means more customers.

The flywheel only compounds if the market standard remains un-fakeable. Market defensibility is therefore a first-class growth constraint, tracked alongside CAC, CPD, Lab SLA, and retention. If competitors can harvest the "verified raw" market Protocol Raw created by copying the language without matching the operations, CAC rises, price pressure follows, and unit economics degrade even with perfect execution. The defensive response is not louder claims — it is tighter proof proximity (every promise sits beside a proof artifact), trained customer rituals (scan → see → trust), and institutional reinforcement (vet network, published standards) that cannot be satisfied by rhetoric alone.

Every phase of this playbook strengthens all three layers simultaneously.

The Messaging Rule¶

Every channel, every creative, every landing page follows the Brand Voice v1.1 principle:

Lead with the outcome. Back it with the system.

The customer outcome sentence comes first: calm, simple, worry removed. The proof artifacts (QR code, batch report, hold-and-release protocol) appear as support, not as hooks.

This matters because "every batch independently tested by a UKAS-accredited laboratory" is a mechanism. It belongs in the "How it works" layer. The hook is: "Raw feeding you don't have to worry about." The mechanism proves it.

Without this discipline, Protocol Raw risks the exact failure mode identified in the business plan: "the most impressive raw brand no one tries." Impressive mechanisms that don't feel adoptable. The Worry Goes Away test (Brand Voice v1.1) is the release gate for all growth-facing materials.

The Competitive Landscape for Attention¶

Before building the acquisition playbook, we need to understand where attention lives in this market.

Search landscape (UK, Q3 2025 data):

"Raw dog food" generates roughly 33,000 monthly searches in the UK. That's decent but not massive. The real opportunity is in the long tail — the hundreds of informational queries where people are researching, not buying.

Butternut Box dominates overall fresh/raw search visibility by combining brand demand with deep content coverage. Bella & Duke wins through education-focused content and expert-led advice. Nutriment grows by targeting informational intent with only 4% branded traffic — meaning 96% of their visitors are discovering them through generic searches.

The lesson: brands that show up when pet owners are researching, not just when they're ready to buy, own the next phase of growth. Discovery-led content beats brand-led marketing for new customer acquisition.

The Protocol Raw advantage: No raw dog food brand in the UK has built content around verification. Nobody is answering "how do I know raw dog food is safe" with actual published test results. Nobody is answering "is raw dog food nutritionally complete" with a link to their independent lab analysis. This is a content gap the size of a cathedral.

Butternut Box pricing context:

Butternut Box charges roughly £1.60-6.00 per day depending on dog size. A Labrador owner pays around £124/month. Our 12kg box at £109 covers a similar-sized dog for roughly the same period. We are not meaningfully more expensive than Butternut Box for medium-large dogs — and we are nutritionally superior (raw vs gently cooked). The conversion story is not "switch to save money." It is "same price, better nutrition, verified safe."

Phase 1: 0 → 500 Customers (Months 0–6)¶

The Cold-Start Problem¶

This is the hardest phase. You have no customers, no testimonials, no proof data archive, no vet endorsements, and no brand awareness. The very things that make Protocol Raw compelling at scale don't exist yet.

The first 500 customers are not buying proof. They are buying the promise of proof. They convert because the system is credible, the science is sound, and the founder clearly knows what they're doing.

Who Converts First (And Why)¶

Segment 1: Research-Complete Raw-Curious (40% of early customers)

These people have already decided raw feeding is right for their dog. They've read the studies. They've watched the documentaries. They've browsed Bella & Duke and Nutriment and Paleo Ridge. They haven't pulled the trigger because something still feels uncertain — usually safety, or completeness, or the overwhelming choice of 20+ SKU catalogues.

Protocol Raw removes the uncertainty. One food. Complete for all life stages. Nothing ships without a lab pass. No guesswork, no risk.

How they find you: Google search. These are the people typing "tested raw dog food UK", "is raw dog food safe for puppies", "complete raw dog food FEDIAF". They are looking for you. You just need to be there when they search.

What converts them: The feeling that raw feeding has finally been made simple and safe. The calculator gives them an exact daily portion. The testing protocol removes the safety doubt. One product means no decision paralysis.

Segment 2: Premium Pet Parents (25% of early customers)

They buy the best of everything. Organic groceries. Patagonia jackets. They're currently feeding Orijen or Acana kibble, or they've tried Butternut Box. They don't have strong opinions about raw vs cooked — they want the best available option and they're willing to pay for it.

Protocol Raw feels like the right choice because of the quality signal: the precision of the calculator, the seriousness of the testing, the clean design. They don't need to understand FEDIAF compliance. They need the experience to feel premium and trustworthy.

How they find you: Paid social and organic discovery. Instagram and Facebook ads that demonstrate the system in action. They respond to credibility and evidence, not aesthetic alone.

What converts them: The experience feels considered and serious. The calculator personalises their dog's plan. The proof system gives them confidence this is different from every other brand. The price anchoring (£24/week positioned against £4/day for Butternut Box) confirms value.

Segment 3: Breeder and Trainer Referred (20% of early customers)

Their breeder or trainer or dog walker mentioned raw feeding. They trust that person. They want to try it but don't know where to start.

The professional referral carries more weight than any advertisement. If a breeder says "feed this," most new puppy owners will feed it without question. If a trainer says "switch to raw, here's what I recommend," the conversion is essentially done.

How they find you: Professional referral. The breeder or trainer sends them directly to protocolraw.co.uk, often with a specific recommendation.

What converts them: The professional's endorsement combined with simplicity. One product, calculator tells them exactly how much, delivered to their door. The worry about getting raw feeding wrong is gone before they even start.

Segment 4: Butternut Box Frustrated (15% of early customers)

Currently paying premium for cooked fresh food. They've been on Butternut Box for 6-12 months. The dog is fine, but they've started wondering if raw would be better. Maybe they saw something on Instagram. Maybe the dog's coat isn't improving. Maybe they just feel like cooked food is a compromise.

These are the hardest to reach in Phase 1 because they're not actively searching — they're settled. But when they do encounter Protocol Raw, the comparison is immediate: same price, better nutrition, independently verified.

How they find you: Retargeting, comparison content ("Protocol Raw vs Butternut Box"), and word of mouth from Segment 1 customers.

What converts them: The direct comparison. Same convenience (subscription, delivered frozen). Same price range. But raw nutrition instead of cooked, and every batch tested instead of "trust us."

Phase 1 Acquisition Channels¶

Channel 1: Search — The Foundation (Target: 30% of Phase 1 customers)

Search is the only channel where people come to you with intent already formed. Every other channel requires you to create interest. Search captures it.

Google Ads (Month 0-6):

Launch with a focused set of high-intent keywords. The budget is limited (£15-25k total for Phase A acquisition), so precision matters more than reach.

Tier 1 — Buy-intent keywords (highest priority): - "raw dog food delivery UK" - "raw dog food subscription" - "complete raw dog food" - "best raw dog food UK" - "raw puppy food delivery"

These have modest volume but high conversion intent. Bid to top-of-page impression share for Tier 1 within CAC guardrails: pause or adjust if blended Google Ads CAC exceeds £120 for 14 consecutive days. Your landing page (calculator) converts better than any competitor's product catalogue because it's personalised.

Tier 2 — Research-intent keywords (content pages): - "is raw dog food safe" - "raw dog food bacteria risk" - "raw vs cooked dog food" - "how much raw food for my dog" - "BARF diet calculator UK"

These drive traffic to journal articles, not the product page. The articles build trust and capture email addresses for remarketing. Lower CPC, higher volume, longer conversion path.

Tier 3 — Competitor keywords (Month 3+): - "butternut box alternative" - "bella and duke vs" - "nutriment raw dog food review"

Only activate once you have some customer testimonials and proof data to reference.

Organic SEO (Month 0-6, investment for Month 6+ payoff):

You won't rank for competitive terms immediately, but every article published now compounds. The content strategy for Phase 1:

Publish before launch (Month 0): 1. "How to Read a Raw Dog Food Lab Report" — Explains what Salmonella, Listeria, and Enterobacteriaceae testing means. Links to your proof portal. No competitor has this content because no competitor publishes lab reports. 2. "Is Raw Dog Food Nutritionally Complete? How to Verify" — Explains FEDIAF standards, what "complete" actually means, and why independent lab analysis matters. You already have Blog 3 drafted for this. 3. "How Much Raw Food Should I Feed My Dog?" — Explains RER/MER methodology. Links to calculator. This targets "raw dog food calculator" search intent. 4. "The First Month of Raw Feeding: What Actually Changes" — You already have Blog 4 drafted. Addresses transition anxiety directly.

Publish Month 1-3: 5. "What Your Batch Report Actually Tells You" — Blog 1 is drafted. Supports the QR proof portal. 6. "Raw Dog Food for Puppies: Safety and Completeness" — Targets the puppy owner segment. Explains All Life Stages compliance. 7. "Talking to Your Vet About Raw Feeding" — Blog 2 is drafted. Addresses the vet objection without being adversarial. 8. "Raw vs Cooked Dog Food: What the Evidence Says" — Direct comparison content targeting Butternut Box considerers.

Publish Month 3-6: 9. "Protocol Raw vs Butternut Box: A Detailed Comparison" — Once you have some proof data and customer feedback. Factual comparison, not attack. 10. "What Happens When a Batch Fails Testing?" — Transparency article explaining your hold-and-release protocol. Powerful trust content. 11. "Understanding FEDIAF: The European Pet Food Standard" — Educational, positions you as the expert. 12. "Why We Only Make One Food" — Explains the single-SKU strategy in a way that builds customer confidence.

Every article follows the Journal SOP: factual, evidence-based, not salesy. Each article includes a natural CTA to the calculator, but education comes first.

Channel 2: Paid Social — Proof Demonstration (Target: 35% of Phase 1 customers)

Instagram and Facebook are where you reach Segment 2 (premium pet parents) and begin building awareness with Segment 4 (Butternut Box frustrated).

The outcome-first rule for paid creative:

In Phase 1, paid should be primarily proof-demonstration and calculator precision. The creative leads with the customer outcome (calm, simple, no-worry feeding), then shows the system that delivers it. We are not building a vibes brand. The proof archive doesn't exist yet, and aesthetic positioning without evidence behind it creates the exact "impressive but not adoptable" failure mode the brand voice doc warns against.

Creative Strategy:

Every ad must do two things in under 3 seconds: communicate that raw feeding has been made simple and safe, then show the proof artifact that backs it up.

Creative Angle 1 — "The Worry Goes Away" (Outcome-first): Video or carousel. Lead: "Raw feeding. Without the worry." Show someone scanning a pouch QR code, the proof page loading with PASS results. The system is the support, not the hook. CTA: See your dog's plan.

Creative Angle 2 — "One Food, Done Right" (Simplicity-first): Clean product shot, single pouch. Lead: "Stop overthinking your dog's food." Brief explanation: one complete blend, tested before it ships, exact portions from the calculator. CTA: See how much your dog needs.

Creative Angle 3 — "The Calculator" (Precision-first): Screen recording of the calculator in action. Lead: "Your dog isn't average. Their food shouldn't be either." Weight entered, RER calculated, portion displayed, price shown. The precision signals competence. CTA: Calculate now.

Creative Angle 4 — "Same Price, Better Nutrition" (Comparison): Side-by-side: Butternut Box (gently cooked, £4.14/day for a Lab) vs Protocol Raw (raw, independently tested, similar price). Lead: "Already paying premium? Get premium nutrition." Not attacking Butternut Box — acknowledging they're good, then showing the next step. CTA: Make the switch.

Targeting:

Interest targeting: Dog owners, premium pet food buyers, raw feeding interested
Lookalike audiences (Month 2+): Based on calculator completions and purchases
Geo-targeting: London postcodes only (matches delivery area, concentrates spend)
Retargeting: Calculator visitors who didn't purchase (feeds into abandonment recovery system)

Budget:

£2-4k/month in Phase 1. Testing 3-5 creative variants per week, 7-day read, kill or scale. CAC target £100-120 early (acceptable while learning), improving to £70-90 by Month 4-5.

Channel 3: Professional Referrals — The Multiplier (Target: 20% of Phase 1 customers)

This is the highest-leverage channel but requires direct effort. Every breeder or trainer who recommends Protocol Raw sends a steady stream of pre-qualified customers who convert at significantly higher rates than any other channel.

Professional Partner CRM (Supabase — from Day 1):

Every professional partner is tracked systematically, not in the founder's head. The following fields live in raw_ops.professional_partners:

partner_id (UUID, primary key)
partner_type (ENUM: 'breeder', 'trainer', 'vet', 'walker')
name, business_name, email, phone
status (ENUM: 'prospect', 'contacted', 'trial_shipped', 'active', 'inactive', 'declined')
last_contact_date, next_contact_date
trial_shipped_date, trial_batch_code
referral_code, referral_link
total_referrals, total_conversions
wholesale_pricing_tier
notes, source (how we found them)
created_at, updated_at

This is consistent with the "ops events / source-of-truth in Supabase" approach used across all systems. No partner falls through the cracks.

Monthly Partner Cadence Email (Customer.io — automated):

Every active partner receives a monthly email containing the latest batch results summary and one useful resource (feeding chart, seasonal tip, or new journal article they can share with clients). This keeps Protocol Raw top of mind without requiring founder effort after setup.

Breeder Programme (Month 1-4):

Target: 10-15 active breeders in London by Month 6.

How to find them: - Kennel Club registered breeders within London and Home Counties - Instagram breeders with active followings (not puppy farms — established, reputable breeders) - Dog show attendees and breed club members

The pitch: "I'm launching a raw dog food company that tests every batch in an independent lab and publishes the results. I want to send you a box to try with your dogs. If you're happy with the quality and the testing protocol, I'd like to offer your puppy buyers a personalised link with £25 off their first box and wholesale pricing for your own dogs."

What they get: - Free trial box (your cost: ~£30 in product + delivery) - Wholesale pricing for their own dogs (cost price + 10%, roughly £50 for 12kg vs £109 retail) - Personalised referral link with tracking - £25 off for their puppy buyers (funded by your acquisition budget, still cheaper than paid CAC) - Access to your batch reports to show puppy buyers

Asset Pack (v1.0 — versioned and tracked): - Breed-specific feeding chart from the calculator (PDF, branded) - One-page overview of Protocol Raw (who, what, why) - QR code card linking to proof portal (for handing to puppy buyers) - Referral link card with their unique code

Asset packs are versioned. When batch results accumulate or the brand evolves, updated packs are distributed via the monthly cadence email. Distribution logged in the partner CRM.

Why this works: A breeder who sends home 4-6 puppies per litter, 1-2 litters per year, is 4-12 high-LTV customers per year at near-zero CAC. Ten active breeders could drive 40-120 customers per year. At a puppy price of £1,500-3,000, these are premium buyers who don't flinch at £109/month for dog food.

Trainer Programme (Month 2-6):

Target: 5-10 dog trainers in London by Month 6.

How to find them: - APDT or IMDT registered trainers in London - Trainers who already advocate for raw or fresh feeding (check their social media, websites) - Dog training class providers in premium London postcodes

The pitch: Similar to breeders, but the angle is different. Trainers see the impact of nutrition on behaviour and energy levels. "Dogs on complete raw diets often show improved focus and more stable energy — useful for training. I'd like to send you a box and our testing data."

What they get: - Free trial box - Wholesale pricing for their own dogs - Client referral link with tracking - Printed cards to hand to clients (with QR code to calculator)

Channel 4: Organic Social — Awareness, Not Conversion (Target: 15% indirect contribution)

Instagram is not a conversion channel at this stage. It's a credibility signal. When someone sees a Protocol Raw ad, the first thing they do is check the Instagram profile. If it looks professional, active, and legitimate, they proceed. If it looks empty or amateurish, they bounce.

Content cadence: 3-4 posts per week. Not daily — quality over frequency.

Content types: - Product photography (the pouch, the packaging, the frozen box) - Process content (batch testing in progress, lab report close-ups, QR code scans) - Educational carousels (raw feeding facts, portion guidance, transition tips) - Proof moments (new batch verified and released, monthly safety archive updates)

What NOT to do: - Don't use cute dog memes or "fur baby" language - Don't run giveaways or engagement bait - Don't post daily motivational quotes about raw feeding - Don't engage in raw vs kibble arguments

The Instagram should feel like a premium brand's feed, not a pet influencer's page.

Phase 1 Conversion Mechanism¶

Every channel drives to the same destination: the calculator.

The calculator is the conversion engine. It takes "interested" and turns it into "committed." The flow is:

Visitor arrives at protocolraw.co.uk (from any channel)
Homepage immediately presents the value proposition leading to the calculator
Calculator asks: life stage, weight, activity level, body condition
Calculator outputs: daily grams, box size, price, delivery frequency
Result page shows personalised plan with £20 discount
3-step verification modal captures email and address
Checkout with Seal Subscriptions

If they don't complete: abandonment recovery kicks in at 1 hour and 48 hours via Customer.io.

The calculator is what separates Protocol Raw from every competitor. Nobody else personalises to this degree using veterinary methodology. Nobody else makes the experience feel like it was built by someone who actually cares about precision. The calculator converts browsers into buyers because it transforms "should I try raw food?" into "my dog needs 275g per day and it costs £24/week."

Phase 1 Retention Strategy¶

Retention in Phase 1 is not about systems — it's about personal attention. At 0-500 customers, you know every single one.

The onboarding sequence (SOP-LC-01): - Order confirmation (immediate) - Transition guide (Day 1) - Week 1 check-in (Day 7) — relational, invites reply - Week 2 check-in (Day 14) — relational, invites reply

The "no one churns without a conversation" rule:

In Phase A, every cancellation triggers a personal email from the founder. Not automated — actually personal. "I noticed you cancelled. I'd genuinely like to understand what happened. Was it the food, the delivery, the price, or something else entirely?"

This serves two purposes: it recovers some customers (maybe delivery was late and they're frustrated, not dissatisfied), and it generates qualitative data about why people leave. This data is worth more than retention at this stage because it shapes everything that follows.

The proof delivery moment:

When a customer's box arrives, the QR code on the packaging links to their specific batch's test results. This is the moment of trust. The customer scans the code, sees the PASS results, and the worry they didn't even know they were carrying just goes away. That's the experience we're building. Everything else supports it.

Phase 1 Operational Stop-Rules¶

Growth is a systems problem. These operational constraints can silently kill acquisition even when CAC and retention look fine.

Stop-Rule 1: QA_HOLD Working Capital Ceiling

If £ tied up in QA_HOLD inventory breaches the warning threshold (>£400k or oldest batch >5 days in hold), throttle acquisition until release cadence stabilises. This is already monitored by raw_ops.fn_check_working_capital_v2() running every 6 hours (SOP-MON-01).

Even profitable cohorts produce negative cash if inventory investment outruns contribution. Test-and-release means every batch is frozen capital while awaiting lab clearance. If lab turnaround drifts, the cash lock-up cascades.

Action: If working capital warning triggers, reduce paid spend by 50% until QA_HOLD batch count returns to normal. Do not resume full acquisition spend until the oldest batch in hold is <3 days.

Stop-Rule 2: Lab SLA as First-Class KPI

Lab turnaround is not an ops footnote — it is a growth KPI. Target: median turnaround <72 hours. Alert threshold: >96 hours.

If median lab turnaround drifts above 4 days, it cascades into stockouts (can't ship what hasn't been released), working capital lock-up (more batches sitting in QA_HOLD), and customer experience failure (delayed deliveries).

Action: If lab SLA breaches 96 hours for 3 consecutive batches, escalate to lab partner. If no resolution within 1 week, activate backup lab partnership. This is monitored by raw_ops.fn_check_lab_sla_v2() running every 15 minutes (SOP-MON-01).

Stop-Rule 3: CPD Trajectory Gate

Normalised CPD must trend below £22 by Month 3. If it doesn't, pause geographic expansion and implement density levers (hard delivery windows by micro-zone, waitlist gating by postcode, referral boosts for route concentration).

CPD targets from the Business Plan: - Phase A start: £22-24/box (Normalised) - Phase A target: £19-21/box by Month 6

Action: If Normalised CPD not trending below £22 by Month 3, restrict delivery zones to highest-density postcodes. If CPD >£21 by Month 6, renegotiate courier terms before any expansion.

Phase 1 Metrics¶

Metric	Target	Red Flag
Calculator completions	150-200/month by Month 3	<50/month
Calculator → Purchase	15-25%	<10%
Blended CAC	£100-120 (improving)	>£150 sustained
Box-2 Retention	≥70%	<60%
Monthly churn	<6%	>8%
Referral programme activation	20% of customers share link	<10%
Breeder/trainer partnerships	10-15 active	<5 by Month 4
Lab turnaround (median)	<72 hours	>96 hours
QA_HOLD cash tied up	<£400k	>£400k
Normalised CPD	Trending to £19-21	Not below £22 by Month 3

What Unlocks Phase 2¶

Phase 1 ends when you have: - 300-500 active subscribers - Box-2 retention ≥70% (proven on n≥100 cohort) - Published batch results archive (3-6 months of data) - £1.0-1.5M seed raised - At least 5 active professional referral partners - Lab SLA consistently <72 hours (median) - Normalised CPD trending to £19-21

If retention is below 65%, stop acquiring and fix the product/experience. If CAC is above £120 sustained, the messaging or targeting needs work. If lab turnaround is drifting, fix the supply chain before scaling volume. Do not scale broken economics or broken operations.

Phase 2: 500 → 2,500 Customers (Months 7-12)¶

What Changes¶

You now have proof. Real proof. Three to six months of published batch results. Dozens of customer testimonials (collected through check-in email replies). Box-2 retention data. A small but growing archive of safety data.

This changes the acquisition playbook fundamentally. Phase 1 was "trust us, we'll prove it." Phase 2 is "here's the proof."

The Proof Flywheel Activates¶

Content becomes evidence-based:

Every piece of content can now reference real data. "Our first 20 batches: zero pathogen detections" is a statement no competitor can make because no competitor publishes their results. Blog posts shift from "this is what we plan to do" to "this is what we've done."

New content for Phase 2: - "6 Months of Batch Testing: Our Complete Safety Record" — Safety report (published at Month 6) - Customer outcome stories (not testimonials — structured reports: "Month 1 vs Month 3, here's what changed") - "Why We Publish Results Other Brands Don't" — Transparency as positioning - Breed-specific feeding guides (Labrador, Cockapoo, French Bulldog — high search volume breeds) - Seasonal content (raw feeding in summer, frozen delivery in heatwaves, etc.)

Paid social creative gets stronger:

You can now show real proof in ads. Real batch report pages. Real customer quotes. The creative angles that were hypothetical in Phase 1 become concrete. The outcome-first rule still applies — lead with how the customer feels, support with the evidence.

New creative angles: - Lead: "27 batches. Zero failures. Published for anyone to check." Support: Screenshot of proof portal. (evidence) - Customer video: "I was feeding Butternut Box for a year. Here's why I switched." (social proof) - Lead: "The worry is gone." Support: QR scan video with real proof page loading. (outcome + evidence) - Vet quote (once secured): "I review their testing protocol. It's thorough." (authority)

Phase 2 Channel Evolution¶

Search — SEO begins compounding (Target: 25% of new customers)

By Month 7-8, early articles start ranking. The feeding calculator page should be gaining organic traffic for "raw dog food calculator" and related terms. The safety articles should be appearing for "is raw dog food safe."

Expand the content programme: - Increase publishing to 2-3 articles per month - Add comparison pages: "Protocol Raw vs [Competitor]" for top 5 competitors - Add breed-specific landing pages (these target high-volume searches like "best food for Labrador") - Create a "Raw Feeding Guide" hub page that links to all educational content (pillar content strategy)

Technical SEO: - Implement schema markup (FAQ schema on articles, Product schema on product page, Organisation schema) - Ensure proof portal pages are indexable (each batch report is a unique URL with unique content) - Submit XML sitemap covering all journal articles, proof pages, and key landing pages - Target Google AI Overview inclusion through structured FAQ content

Paid Social — Optimise and scale (Target: 35% of new customers)

Phase 1 gave you data. You know which creative angles work, which audiences convert, which placements perform. Phase 2 is optimisation.

Budget: Scale to £8-15k/month. CAC should improve to £70-90 as creative improves and lookalike audiences mature.

Key actions: - Build lookalike audiences from customer list (1%, 2%, 3% lookalikes) - Test Video vs Static vs Carousel (typically video wins for education, static for retargeting) - Launch Google Performance Max campaigns alongside Meta (broaden reach) - Implement value-based bidding once you have LTV data (optimise for subscribers, not just purchases)

Professional Referrals — Systematise (Target: 20% of new customers)

Phase 1 was founder-led relationship building. Phase 2 systematises it.

Breeder programme expansion: - Target: 30-40 active breeders by Month 12 - Deploy the Breeder Partner Kit: printed materials, breed-specific feeding charts from the calculator, QR code cards - Monthly partner cadence email (automated via Customer.io) with new batch results and one useful resource - Track referral rates per breeder in Supabase CRM to identify top partners

Trainer programme expansion: - Target: 15-20 active trainers by Month 12 - Create trainer-specific content: "Nutrition and Training Performance" guide - Offer to run a free "Nutrition for Performance" workshop at their training facility

Veterinary outreach begins: - Month 7: Create the Vet Validation Pack (1-page safety summary + full lab reports + FEDIAF nutritional panel) - Month 8: Systematic outreach to London practices (30 per month, founder-led) - Month 10: Launch Vet Partner Programme (practice featured on site, dedicated referral tracking) - Target: 3-5 named vet endorsements by Month 12

The vet pitch is not "endorse raw feeding." It's "review our testing protocol and our nutritional data. If you're comfortable with the rigour, we'd value your professional assessment." You're asking for validation, not advocacy.

Customer Referrals — The organic engine (Target: 20% of new customers)

The referral system (SOP-REF-01) is live from launch, but it truly activates in Phase 2 as the customer base reaches critical mass.

Programme mechanics (already built): - Referee gets £25 off first box (vs £20 standard calculator discount) - Referrer gets £15 credit (auto-applied at next renewal) - Total incremental cost per referral: £20 (vs £70-90 paid CAC)

What drives referral behaviour:

Referrals don't happen because you offer £15. They happen because the customer experiences something worth sharing. In raw feeding, based on what existing raw feeders commonly report, that moment is typically:

The dog devours the food enthusiastically (Week 1)
Owners often notice firmer, smaller stools with less odour (Week 2-3)
Many customers report visible coat improvement (Month 2-3)
Someone asks "what are you feeding?" and the customer has a concrete answer

Note on outcomes language: Until Protocol Raw has its own structured outcomes data (Phase 2+), these are described as "commonly reported" or "what people often notice." They are not Protocol Raw claims. This distinction matters for regulatory compliance and brand credibility. Once the outcomes data infrastructure produces 6+ months of structured data, these can graduate to "our customers report" with data backing.

The QR code is the referral trigger. It gives customers something tangible to show other dog owners. "Look, you can actually see the test results." That's more shareable than any discount code.

Referral trigger timing:

The referral programme is passively available from Day 1 (link in account, card in box). But the active referral nudge — the email or in-app prompt that explicitly asks "share with a friend" — fires only after a concrete confidence-confirming moment:

QR code scanned (proof engagement confirmed)
Box-2 ordered (product validated through reorder)
Positive reply to Week 1 or Week 2 check-in (explicit satisfaction signal)

This keeps referrals aligned with earned confidence, not incentive mechanics. Asking someone to refer before they've confirmed trust in the product creates awkwardness, not advocacy.

Referral programme enhancements for Phase 2: - Add same-postcode bonus (£10 extra for referrer if referee is in same postcode area — drives delivery density) - Include physical referral cards in every box (QR code linking to referrer's unique page) - Track referral language in Customer.io to monitor the shift from mechanism ("they test every batch") to outcome ("the worry is just gone")

Phase 2 Retention Strategy¶

At 500-2,500 customers, personal founder attention becomes impossible. The systems take over.

The lifecycle sequence (SOP-LC-01) does the heavy lifting:

Onboarding emails set expectations and address transition anxiety. Delivery reminders prevent surprise charges. Check-in emails invite feedback. The system is designed to be warm without being needy.

Churn intervention triggers:

Missed delivery (skipped box) → Automated check-in: "Everything okay? Your next box is paused."
Payment failure → Dunning sequence (SOP-SUB-00): 4 attempts over 10 days, escalating urgency
Cancellation initiated → Exit survey + human follow-up from customer service persona

Box-2 specific focus:

Box-2 retention is the single most important metric in Phase 2. Every customer who reorders has validated the product. Every customer who doesn't has identified a failure point.

Track Box-2 by: box size, entry channel, calculator completion vs direct purchase, breed, postcode area. Look for patterns. If 8kg box customers churn at higher rates, the portion may be too small for their dog. If Google Ads customers churn more than organic, the ad is over-promising.

Phase 2 Operational Stop-Rules¶

Stop-Rule 4: QA_HOLD Working Capital at Scale

At 500+ customers, production volume increases. More batches in flight means more capital locked in QA_HOLD at any given time. The working capital monitor thresholds (SOP-MON-01) remain: warning at £400k tied up or oldest batch >5 days, critical at £600k or oldest batch >7 days.

Action: If critical threshold breaches, throttle all acquisition to renewals-only until batches clear. Negotiate expedited testing with lab partner. Consider pre-funding buffer stock of released inventory to decouple acquisition rate from lab cadence.

Stop-Rule 5: CPD Trajectory at 3PL Transition

The Phase B CPD target is £14-18/box Normalised by Month 12. The 3PL transition (Month 7) may temporarily increase CPD by £0.50-1.50 due to pick/pack fees and integration costs.

Action: If Normalised CPD not trending toward £14-18 by Month 12, restrict expansion to London only. Pause City 2 planning. Negotiate 3PL volume discounts and test hyper-local carrier pilots.

Stop-Rule 6: Lab SLA Under Volume

As production scales, lab partner may deprioritise or experience capacity constraints. Lab SLA remains a first-class KPI: median <72 hours, alert >96 hours.

Action: If >20% of batches exceed 4 days in a rolling 30-day window, activate backup lab relationship. This trigger is already defined in the Growth Strategy v2.2 risk framework.

Phase 2 Metrics¶

Metric	Target	Red Flag
New customers/month	300-400 by Month 12	<150
Blended CAC	£70-90	>£100 sustained
Box-2 Retention	≥70%	<65%
Box-3 Retention (of Box-2)	≥80%	<70%
Referral rate	15-20% of customers share link	<10%
Referral conversion	25% of shares → purchase	<15%
Organic traffic	2,000-5,000/month	<1,000
Professional partners	40-50 active (breeders + trainers)	<25
Vet endorsements	3-5 named	0
Monthly churn	<5%	>7%
Lab turnaround (median)	<72 hours	>96 hours
Normalised CPD	Trending to £14-18	>£20 by Month 12
QA_HOLD cash	Within monitor thresholds	Critical breach

What Unlocks Phase 3¶

Phase 2 ends when you have: - 2,000-2,500 active subscribers - Consistent CAC £70-90 with improving trend - Referrals driving ≥15% of acquisition - 3-5 vet endorsements with quotes for marketing use - Content ranking for 5+ high-value search terms - Seed capital still providing 12+ months of runway - Clear data on which channels scale most efficiently - Lab SLA consistently <72 hours under production volume - Normalised CPD trending toward £14-18

Phase 3: 2,500 → 10,000 Customers (Months 13-24)¶

What Changes¶

At 2,500 customers, Protocol Raw stops being a startup and starts being a reference point. You have 12+ months of published batch data. Dozens of vet-reviewed results. Hundreds of customer outcome stories. A growing content archive that ranks for the queries raw-curious buyers actually search.

The constraint shifts from "can we acquire customers profitably" to "can we acquire customers profitably in new geographies while maintaining the quality bar."

Geographic Expansion¶

London is proving ground. The Home Counties and then City 2 (likely Manchester or Bristol) are the expansion.

The City Launch Playbook (documented in Growth Strategy v2.2):

Pre-launch: identify high-density premium postcodes, secure regional 3PL, build city-specific landing pages, seed waitlist. Launch: 200-300 customers from waitlist conversion, local vet outreach, local PR. Growth: scale to 1,000 via paid acquisition.

The growth playbook for each new city follows the same structure as Phase 1, but with two crucial advantages: national-level proof data and a proven content/creative library. A new city launch doesn't need to build credibility from scratch — it inherits the proof archive.

City-specific growth tactics: - Geo-targeted landing pages with local vet endorsements - City-specific Instagram ads showing delivery to recognisable local areas - Local breeder and trainer outreach (same playbook, new geography) - PR in local lifestyle press ("London raw dog food brand expands to [city]")

Channel Maturation¶

SEO becomes a primary channel (Target: 30% of new customers)

By Month 12-18, the content programme should be driving significant organic traffic. The proof portal pages alone represent hundreds of unique, regularly updated URLs — exactly the kind of fresh, authoritative content Google rewards.

Content programme at scale: - 4-6 articles per month - "Annual Safety Report" published at Month 12 (major trust asset and PR opportunity) - Breed-specific guides for top 20 UK breeds - Seasonal feeding guides - Guest content from vet advisors (builds authority and backlinks) - Comparison pages updated quarterly with latest data

The SEO moat: Every month that passes, the Protocol Raw proof archive grows. Every batch result page is a unique, crawlable URL. Every journal article builds topical authority. After 18 months, a new competitor entering the market would need years to build equivalent content depth and domain authority. This is the time-locked competitive advantage.

Paid social becomes efficient (Target: 25% of new customers)

At this scale, you have enough conversion data to build highly optimised campaigns. Value-based bidding targets not just purchasers but high-LTV subscribers. Creative testing is systematic (3-5 variants per week, 7-day read, kill/scale).

New creative opportunities: - Customer video testimonials at scale - Vet endorsement ads ("Recommended by [Practice Name]") - "Published Proof" creative angle: screenshot of proof portal with real batch data - Retargeting with social proof: "Join 5,000+ dog owners who verify their dog's food"

Professional channel matures (Target: 25% of new customers)

By Month 18, the professional programme should include 50+ breeders, 20+ trainers, and 10+ named vet endorsements. This channel has the lowest CAC and highest LTV because professional referrals carry inherent trust.

Phase 3 professional strategy: - Vet Validation Pack distributed to 100+ practices - Host "Verification Standards" veterinary seminar (10-15 practices, sponsored by Protocol Raw) - Launch formal Vet Partner Programme with practice listing on website - Explore kennel club partnerships (working dog organisations, guide dog associations)

Customer referrals compound (Target: 20% of new customers)

The referral programme at 2,500+ customers should be self-sustaining. Track referral language to monitor the shift from mechanism-based ("they test every batch") to outcome-based ("the worry is just gone"). Outcome language travels further.

Phase 3 referral enhancements: - Tiered rewards for super-referrers (5+ referrals → free box) - Local referral density bonuses (postcode-level) - Referral programme for professional partners (separate from customer programme, higher rewards)

The "Verified Raw Standard" Opportunity¶

Somewhere in Phase 3, Protocol Raw transitions from "a brand that tests" to "the standard for testing."

This isn't a marketing decision. It's an infrastructure decision. When you have 18+ months of published batch data, you have the most comprehensive raw pet food safety dataset in the UK. No regulatory body, no industry association, no competitor has anything close.

Publishing the "Verified Raw Standard":

A public document that defines what safe raw feeding requires: - Independent pathogen testing on every batch (not sampling, not self-testing) - Hold-and-release protocol (nothing ships without lab clearance) - Published results (accessible to any consumer, not hidden behind "proprietary") - FEDIAF nutritional compliance (independently verified, not self-declared)

This standard is aspirational for the industry. It positions Protocol Raw not as one option among many, but as the company that defined what "safe" means. Even competitors who don't adopt it are now being measured against it.

Why this matters for growth:

The standard creates organic press coverage, backlinks, and authority that no advertising budget can buy. When a journalist writes about raw dog food safety, they reference the standard. When a vet discusses raw feeding with a client, they know the standard exists. When a customer compares brands, Protocol Raw is the one that set the bar.

The Two Crowns Content Graduation¶

Phase 3 is where the content strategy begins graduating from the safety crown toward the outcomes crown. This must be deliberate, not accidental.

Phase 1 content rule (Months 0-6): Curiosity signals only. Health questionnaires framed as "we're tracking how dogs respond." Behind-the-scenes content showing data collection. Proof portal metadata quietly tracking outcomes. Nothing that reads as a claim about outcomes.

Phase 2 content rule (Months 7-12): Structured outcome reporting begins. Customer outcome stories shift from anecdotal testimonials to template-based, measurable reports. "Month 1 vs Month 3: here's what changed" with structured data collection (coat condition, stool quality, energy levels, weight stability). These are data points, not marketing claims.

Phase 3 content rule (Months 13-24): Outcomes become a second pillar. With 12-18 months of structured outcome data, Protocol Raw can publish credible content about what verified raw feeding actually does to dogs. This is the second crown — "We understand what raw actually does" — and it comes with 12+ months of data to back it. Outcomes content grows to 15-20% of total output without diluting safety authority.

The pigeonhole risk (Business Plan v2.2, Strategic Risk #10) is that Protocol Raw becomes permanently perceived as "the safety raw brand." This graduation is the mitigation: by Phase 3, Protocol Raw is the safety brand and the outcomes authority. Both crowns held simultaneously.

Phase 3 Metrics¶

Metric	Target	Red Flag
Total active subscribers	7,000-10,000 by Month 18	<5,000
Monthly new customers	600-800	<400
Blended CAC	£60-80	>£95 sustained
Organic traffic	10,000-25,000/month	<5,000
Referral share	20-25% of acquisition	<15%
Professional channel	25-30% of acquisition	<15%
Vet endorsements	10+ named	<5
Monthly churn	<4%	>6%
LTV	>£1,500	<£1,200
Normalised CPD	£14-18 (trending to £8-12)	>£20
Lab turnaround (median)	<72 hours	>96 hours
Outcomes data months	12-18 months accumulated	<9 months

What Unlocks Phase 4¶

Phase 3 ends when you have: - 7,000-10,000 active subscribers - Proven city launch playbook (4 months to 1,000 customers, repeatable) - Series A raised (£10-20M) - National logistics infrastructure in progress - Content ranking as a category authority - Professional channel driving 25%+ of acquisition - "Verified Raw Standard" published and gaining industry recognition - Outcomes data sufficient for credible Phase B crown claims

Phase 4: 10,000 → 50,000 Customers (Months 24-36+)¶

What Changes¶

At 10,000 customers, Protocol Raw is no longer proving a concept. It's scaling a proven model. The question shifts from "does this work?" to "how fast can we replicate it?"

National Expansion¶

The city launch playbook, proven in London and 1-2 expansion cities, gets replicated nationally. 3-4 simultaneous city launches, each following the same sequence: pre-launch seeding → waitlist conversion → local professional outreach → paid acquisition scale.

The key difference at this stage: national brand awareness begins to matter. PR, partnerships, and category authority drive a larger share of acquisition. The brand is known enough that some customers come without any specific channel attribution — they heard about Protocol Raw from a friend, a vet, a breeder, an article, or just brand recognition.

Channel Architecture at Scale¶

SEO — Category ownership (Target: 35% of new customers)

By Month 24, Protocol Raw should dominate UK search for raw dog food safety, raw feeding calculators, and raw dog food testing. The proof archive now contains 50+ batch reports across 24+ months. The journal has 50+ articles. The domain authority has grown through natural backlinks from press coverage, vet citations, and industry references.

The content programme at scale: - Dedicated content team (Marketing Lead hire at Month 12 per Growth Strategy) - 8-10 articles per month across education, comparison, breed-specific, and seasonal - Annual Safety Report becomes an industry event - University research partnerships produce citable data - AI search optimisation (FAQ schema, structured data, AI Overview inclusion)

Paid — Efficient at national scale (Target: 20% of new customers)

Paid social and search become precision instruments. Lookalike audiences are mature. Creative testing is systematic. CAC is optimised. The role of paid shifts from "primary acquisition engine" to "scaling proven demand."

Professional — Distribution network (Target: 25% of new customers)

100+ breeders, 50+ trainers, 25+ vet practices. The professional programme is now a distribution network, not a marketing channel. These partners send a predictable stream of high-LTV customers every month.

Phase 4 professional evolution: - Kennel network partnerships (large boarding facilities, guide dog organisations) - Institutional partnerships (pet insurance companies referencing Protocol Raw as a recommended brand) - Working dog organisations (police, military, search and rescue)

Customer referrals — Self-sustaining (Target: 20% of new customers)

At 10,000+ customers, referral rates should be stable at 20-25% without programme changes. The referral flywheel is self-sustaining: customers experience results, they share with other dog owners, those owners convert, and the cycle repeats.

The Platform Possibility¶

The 0 → 50,000 playbook described above treats Protocol Raw as a subscription food company that grows through trust infrastructure. But the growth architecture identifies something beyond this: the possibility that the trust infrastructure itself becomes a product.

Certification Programme (Phase 4+):

Other raw dog food brands want to be "verified." You have the testing methodology, the lab relationships, the publishing infrastructure. "Verified Raw Partner" certification — where you test their batches and publish their results — turns competitors into dependents.

Compliance Platform (Phase 4+):

The batch tracking, lab integration, proof portal, and safety dashboard you've built are applicable to any raw pet food brand. Offering this as a SaaS platform turns infrastructure cost into revenue.

Data Product (Phase 4+):

With 50,000+ dogs on verified raw diets, you have the largest longitudinal dataset on raw feeding outcomes in the UK. Health correlations, breed-specific responses, seasonal patterns — this data has value to researchers, insurance companies, and the broader pet nutrition industry.

These are strategic options, not commitments. The growth playbook to 50,000 works without them. But they represent the path from "company that sells food" to "system the industry runs on."

The Content Engine: Detailed Specification¶

Content is the single highest-ROI investment across all phases. It compounds over time, costs nothing per click once ranked, and builds the authority moat that makes every other channel more efficient.

Content Pillars¶

Pillar 1: Verification (35% of content)

Content that explains, demonstrates, and celebrates the testing and proof system. This is unique to Protocol Raw — no competitor has equivalent content because no competitor has equivalent infrastructure.

Example topics: - How to read a batch report - What Salmonella/Listeria/Enterobacteriaceae testing involves - What happens when a batch fails - Monthly/quarterly/annual safety reports - "Behind the scenes" of a batch testing cycle - Proof portal walkthroughs

Pillar 2: Nutrition (25% of content)

Evidence-based nutrition content that answers the questions raw-curious buyers are searching. Positions Protocol Raw as the expert, not just a brand.

Example topics: - Is raw food nutritionally complete? - FEDIAF standards explained - Raw vs cooked vs kibble: nutritional comparison - Protein requirements by life stage - The role of organ meats, bone, and tripe - Single-SKU vs rotation feeding

Pillar 3: Practical Guidance (25% of content)

How-to content that helps people actually feed raw. Reduces transition anxiety and supports customer retention.

Example topics: - First month of raw feeding: what changes - Transition guide (10-day schedule) - Talking to your vet about raw - Feeding raw to puppies - Raw feeding in multi-dog households - Handling and storage best practices

Pillar 4: Comparison (15% of content)

Direct comparison content targeting people considering multiple options. Honest, factual, and favourable without being aggressive.

Example topics: - Protocol Raw vs Butternut Box - Protocol Raw vs Bella & Duke - Protocol Raw vs Nutriment - Raw vs fresh cooked: detailed comparison - Best raw dog food UK (ranking article targeting high-volume search)

Content and the Two Crowns¶

The pillar distribution above applies to Phase 1-2 (safety crown). As outcomes data accumulates, the content mix shifts:

Phase 1-2 content mix: Verification 35%, Nutrition 25%, Practical 25%, Comparison 15%. Outcomes content limited to curiosity signals only.

Phase 3 content mix: Verification 30%, Nutrition 20%, Practical 20%, Comparison 15%, Outcomes 15%. Outcomes content now backed by 12+ months of structured data. Template-based outcome reports, breed-specific response data, longitudinal trends.

Phase 4 content mix: Verification 25%, Nutrition 15%, Practical 15%, Comparison 10%, Outcomes 25%, Research/Industry 10%. Outcomes authority established. Research partnerships producing citable data. Annual Health Report alongside Annual Safety Report.

This graduation is not optional. Without it, Protocol Raw risks permanent pigeonholing as "the safety brand" (Business Plan v2.2, Strategic Risk #10).

Content Production Process¶

Pre-launch: Founder writes all content. 4 articles published before first customer.

Phase 1 (Month 0-6): Founder writes 1-2 articles per month. Focus on verification and practical guidance pillars.

Phase 2 (Month 7-12): Founder + freelance writer. 2-3 articles per month. Begin comparison and breed-specific content. Structured outcome data collection begins.

Phase 3 (Month 13-24): Marketing Lead (hire at Month 12) owns content programme. 4-6 articles per month. Full pillar coverage with data-driven topic selection based on search performance. Outcomes content launches with data backing.

Phase 4 (Month 24+): Content team (2-3 people under Marketing Lead). 8-10 articles per month. Annual Safety Report, Annual Health Report, breed guides, seasonal content, guest expert contributions, research partnerships.

Content Distribution¶

Every article is distributed through: 1. Published on protocolraw.co.uk/journal (primary, SEO-indexed) 2. Excerpted on Instagram (carousel format with key facts) 3. Linked in lifecycle emails where relevant (e.g., transition article in Week 1 check-in) 4. Shared with professional partners (breeders/trainers as resources for their clients, via monthly cadence email) 5. Submitted to Google News (once volume warrants it, Phase 3+)

The Paid Acquisition Framework¶

Creative Testing Methodology¶

The 7-Day Test Protocol:

Launch 3-5 creative variants simultaneously
Equal budget per variant (£20-50/day each)
Same audience targeting across all variants
7-day read period (no changes during test)
Kill variants with CPC >2× best performer after Day 3
Scale winners by 20% daily after Day 7
Refresh creative every 4-6 weeks (fatigue cycle)

The Outcome-First Creative Rule¶

Every ad follows the Brand Voice v1.1 principle: lead with the customer outcome, support with the mechanism. The outcome sentence comes in the first 3 seconds (video) or the headline (static). The mechanism appears in the body or secondary frames.

Outcome-first examples: - "Raw feeding. Without the worry." → then show QR scan, batch report - "Stop overthinking your dog's food." → then show one-SKU simplicity, calculator precision - "Same price as Butternut Box. Better nutrition. Verified safe." → then show comparison data - "Your dog's food, tested before it ships." → then show proof portal

Mechanism-first examples to avoid: - "Every batch independently tested by a UKAS-accredited laboratory" → too clinical for a hook - "FEDIAF Growth & Reproduction compliant" → means nothing to the target customer - "Hold-and-release protocol ensures nothing ships without lab clearance" → impressive but not adoptable

Creative Categories¶

Category A: Education (40% of spend) Teaching something about raw feeding that creates curiosity. "Did you know most raw dog food is never independently tested?" Lead with surprise, not mechanism. Format: video (60-90 seconds) or carousel.

Category B: Proof (30% of spend) Showing the verification system in action. The QR scan moment. The batch report loading. The proof portal archive. Lead with "the worry goes away" outcome, then show the system. Format: video (15-30 seconds) or static image.

Category C: Social Proof (20% of spend) Customer stories, vet quotes, review compilations. Only available after Month 3-4 when real testimonials exist. Lead with the customer's experience, not the mechanism they're describing. Format: video testimonial or text overlay on product shot.

Category D: Comparison (10% of spend) Direct but respectful comparison with Butternut Box or kibble. Lead: "Already paying premium? Get premium nutrition." Support: same price, raw vs cooked, independently tested. Format: side-by-side static or carousel.

Audience Architecture¶

Cold audiences (60% of budget): - Interest targeting: dog owners, premium pet food, raw feeding - Broad targeting with creative-level qualification (the ad itself filters the audience) - Geo-targeted to delivery area

Warm audiences (25% of budget): - Website visitors (last 30 days, excluding purchasers) - Calculator starters who didn't complete - Calculator completers who didn't purchase - Instagram/Facebook engagers (last 60 days)

Lookalike audiences (15% of budget, available Month 2+): - 1% lookalike of purchasers (highest value) - 1% lookalike of calculator completers (high intent) - 2% lookalike of email subscribers (broader reach)

Budget Progression¶

Phase	Monthly Paid Budget	Target CAC	Expected Volume
Phase 1 (Month 0-3)	£2-3k	£100-120	20-30 customers
Phase 1 (Month 4-6)	£3-5k	£80-100	40-60 customers
Phase 2 (Month 7-12)	£8-15k	£70-90	100-200 customers
Phase 3 (Month 13-24)	£25-50k	£60-80	350-700 customers
Phase 4 (Month 24+)	£80-150k	£50-70	1,200-2,500 customers

These budgets represent paid social and search only. Professional referrals, organic, and customer referrals are in addition.

Risk Scenarios and Contingencies¶

Scenario 0: Market Standard Becomes Copyable¶

Risk: Competitors adopt "verified" / "tested" / "transparent" language and compress Protocol Raw's differentiation. The standard we created becomes generic, and customers who don't audit deeply default to whichever brand they see first.

Why it might happen: "Verified raw" is partly a conceptual differentiator. Concepts are copyable. Many buyers are relief-seeking, not process-seeking — if a competitor says "tested" convincingly enough, some customers won't check whether that means batch-linked pre-release results or an annual factory audit.

Leading indicators: - Narrative Theft Index: referral and check-in language drifts from ritual-based ("scan your batch") to generic claim-based ("they're tested") — source: Customer.io reply tagging + referral link context - Proof ritual decay: QR scan rate declining while new customer volume holds steady (customers trust the brand claim, skip the proof) - CAC rising despite category growth: overall "raw dog food" search volume and interest increases, but Protocol Raw's share of that growth declines — competitors absorbing the lift we created - Competitor monitoring: count of competitors using "tested/verified" language without published batch-level proof increases

Contingency: Tighten proof proximity across all touchpoints — every claim within one click/scroll of its proof artifact. Shift creative from "we verify" statements to batch-linked proof rituals ("Scan your batch. See your results."). Publish and refresh the Verified Raw Standard definition, making the operational requirements explicit and publicly auditable. Accelerate vet network and institutional partnerships that anchor "verified" to Protocol Raw's specific operational standard, not generic language. Monitor the three defensibility failure modes (narrative theft, safety pigeonhole, adoption trap) as standing items in the Weekly Growth Review.

Scenario 1: SEO Doesn't Work¶

Risk: Content doesn't rank. Organic traffic remains below 1,000/month by Month 12.

Why it might happen: Domain authority too low, competition too strong, content quality insufficient, Google algorithm change.

Contingency: Double down on paid social and professional referrals. SEO is a long-term investment — it may take 18+ months to compound. Increase paid budget by 30% and accelerate professional partner recruitment. Consider link-building through PR (local press, industry publications) to boost domain authority.

Scenario 2: Paid CAC Inflates Above £120¶

Risk: Sustained blended CAC above £120 makes unit economics unsustainable.

Why it might happen: Competitor spending increases, creative fatigue, audience saturation in London, iOS privacy changes reducing targeting effectiveness.

Contingency: Shift budget allocation toward referral programme (increase rewards), professional channel (invest in breeder/trainer relationships), and content/SEO. Reduce paid spend to retargeting only. If CAC remains above £100 with all channels optimised, slow acquisition rate and focus on retention to extend LTV.

Scenario 3: Referrals Don't Compound¶

Risk: Referral rate stays below 10% despite programme incentives.

Why it might happen: Product experience doesn't generate strong enough advocacy, QR code/proof system isn't creating the "share moment," reward structure isn't motivating.

Contingency: Conduct qualitative research with customers who don't refer (why not?). Test higher rewards (£25 referrer, £30 referee). Test different referral triggers (after Dog's 1-month anniversary, after Box 3). Consider non-monetary referral motivators (exclusive access, naming rights on batch reports).

Scenario 4: Box-2 Retention Below 65%¶

Risk: Customers try once and don't reorder.

Why it might happen: Transition difficulty, delivery issues, price sensitivity after discount expires, product quality below expectation.

Contingency: This is a product/experience crisis, not a growth problem. Stop all acquisition spend. Use founder's time for 1:1 customer calls to diagnose. Fix the root cause before spending another pound on acquisition. Possible fixes: improve transition support (additional check-in at Day 3), address delivery packaging issues, offer a "transition guarantee" (if your dog doesn't adjust, full refund on Box 2).

Scenario 5: Professional Channel Fails¶

Risk: Breeders and trainers don't engage. Can't reach 10 active partners by Month 6.

Why it might happen: Breeders already have preferred raw brands, trainers don't want commercial relationships, the pitch doesn't resonate.

Contingency: Shift professional strategy to veterinary-first (vets are more motivated by safety data than breeders who are motivated by brand relationships). Increase paid social and SEO investment to compensate. Test a "puppy pack" sent directly to breeders' puppy buyers with breeder's recommendation included (removes the breeder as gatekeeper).

Scenario 6: Lab SLA Drift¶

Risk: Lab turnaround consistently exceeds 4 days, creating cascading operational failure.

Why it might happen: Lab capacity constraints as production scales, partner deprioritisation, staff shortages at lab facility.

Contingency: This is an operational crisis that silently kills growth. Lab SLA drift → batches stuck in QA_HOLD → working capital locked → stockout risk → delayed deliveries → churn spike. Activate backup lab partnership immediately. Negotiate rush fee structure with primary lab. If sustained >4 days, switch primary lab entirely. Do not attempt to "grow through" lab SLA problems.

Scenario 7: Working Capital Crunch¶

Risk: Cash tied up in QA_HOLD and inventory investment exceeds available capital, even while unit economics look healthy.

Why it might happen: Rapid growth requires pre-funding inventory 4-6 weeks before revenue. Combined with test-and-release hold periods, this creates a cash conversion gap where profitable cohorts still consume cash faster than they generate it.

Contingency: This is the classic working capital trap identified in the Financial Model. The business is operationally profitable from Month 11 but cash-flow negative through Month 15. If cash position approaches critical: throttle acquisition to match available inventory capital. Do not raise emergency funding to solve a timing problem — slow growth to match cash generation. The seed round bridges this gap by design.

Execution Artifacts¶

Strategy without operating rhythm is a nice document that gathers dust. This section specifies the exact dashboards, events, and meeting cadence that make the playbook runnable.

Weekly Growth Review¶

When: Every Monday, 30 minutes.

Attendees: Founder (Phase 1). Founder + Marketing Lead (Phase 2+). Founder + Marketing Lead + Ops Lead (Phase 3+).

Dashboard Tiles (Metabase):

Tile	Source	What It Shows
Calculator Sessions	Shopify analytics / GA4	Total sessions, by source, completion rate
Calculator → Purchase Rate	`raw_ops.orders` + GA4	Conversion from completed calculation to paid order
New Orders This Week	`raw_ops.orders WHERE ordered_at > now() - interval '7 days'`	Count and revenue
Box-2 Retention (Rolling 8-Week Cohort)	`raw_ops.orders` grouped by customer + order sequence	% of first-box customers who placed second order
Referral Activity	`raw_ops.referrals` (SOP-REF-01)	Links shared, conversions, share rate
Paid Spend + CAC	Meta/Google dashboards → manual entry or API	Spend by channel, blended CAC
Organic Traffic	GA4	Sessions, top landing pages, top keywords
Lab SLA	`raw_ops.v_lab_sla_tracking`	Median turnaround, batches >96h
QA_HOLD Working Capital	`raw_ops.v_working_capital_metrics`	£ tied up, batch count, oldest batch age
Normalised CPD	`analytics.v_cpd_weekly`	Trend line, current vs target
Email Metrics	Customer.io	Open rate, click rate, unsubscribe by sequence
Proof Ritual Rate	`raw_ops.ops_events` WHERE event = 'proof_page_viewed'	QR scan rate (% of delivered customers scanning within 48h) + proof page views from non-QR sources
Ritual Language Share	Customer.io reply tags + referral context	% of referral/check-in language that is ritual-based ("scan / batch / results") vs generic ("tested / verified") — tagged manually in Phase 1, automated classification in Phase 2+
Proof → Purchase Conversion	`raw_ops.ops_events` + `raw_ops.orders`	Conversion rate from proof page view to checkout, segmented by entry source (QR scan vs direct vs referral link)
Competitor Claim Monitor	Manual review (monthly)	Count of competitors using "tested/verified" language; presence/absence of published batch-level proof; new entrants
Complexity Tag Rate	Customer service tags (SOP-CS-01)	% of support conversations tagged "complexity / intimidation / confused" — early warning for adoption trap

Meeting Agenda:

Numbers first (5 min): Walk the dashboard. Anything red? Anything surprising?
Acquisition (10 min): What's working? What's not? Any creative needing refresh? Any channel needing budget reallocation?
Retention (5 min): Box-2 cohort trend. Any churn patterns emerging? Any qualitative feedback themes?
Defensibility (5 min): Proof ritual rate trending? Ritual language share holding? Any competitor claim movement? Any complexity/intimidation signals in support?
Operations (5 min): Lab SLA, working capital, CPD. Any operational constraint threatening growth?
This week's actions (5 min): 2-3 specific actions with owners and deadlines.

Event Schema¶

These are the customer-facing and system events that flow through raw_ops.ops_events and Customer.io, enabling attribution, lifecycle triggers, and growth measurement.

Calculator Events (emitted to GA4 + Customer.io): - calculator_started — user begins calculation (page load with interaction) - calculator_completed — user reaches results page - calculator_plan_viewed — user views personalised plan with pricing - calculator_discount_generated — discount code created

Conversion Events (emitted to Supabase + Customer.io): - checkout_started — user enters checkout flow - order_placed — first payment processed (Shopify webhook → SOP 00) - subscription_created — Seal subscription activated

Proof Events (emitted to Supabase): - proof_page_viewed — customer visits proof portal page - batch_qr_scanned — QR code on packaging scanned (tracked via proof portal URL with batch ID) - batch_report_downloaded — PDF version downloaded

Referral Events (emitted to Supabase + Customer.io): - referral_link_shared — unique referral link generated or copied - referral_link_clicked — referee visits referral landing page - referral_conversion — referee completes purchase

Retention Events (emitted to Supabase + Customer.io): - box_2_ordered — customer's second subscription delivery ordered - box_2_skipped — customer skips second delivery - subscription_paused — subscription paused - subscription_cancelled — subscription cancelled - churn_intervention_triggered — automated or manual intervention initiated

Professional Partner Events (emitted to Supabase): - partner_trial_shipped — trial box sent to professional - partner_activated — partner's first referral conversion - partner_referral_converted — customer acquired via partner referral link

Kill / Scale Rules (One-Page Operating Rhythm)¶

Immediate STOP triggers (halt acquisition spend within 24 hours): - Box-2 retention drops below 60% on any cohort n≥30 - Lab SLA exceeds 96 hours for 3 consecutive batches - QA_HOLD working capital breaches critical threshold (>£600k or oldest batch >7 days) - Product safety incident (any batch failure post-release)

Throttle triggers (reduce acquisition spend 50% until resolved): - Blended CAC >£120 sustained for 2+ weeks - QA_HOLD working capital warning (>£400k or oldest batch >5 days) - Normalised CPD not trending to phase target - Lab SLA median >72 hours trending upward

Scale triggers (increase investment in performing channels): - Box-2 retention ≥75% on n≥50 cohort → increase paid spend 20% - Any channel CAC <£70 with consistent volume → increase budget 30% - Referral rate >20% → invest in referral programme enhancements - Professional partner conversion rate >30% → accelerate partner recruitment - Organic traffic growing >15% month-on-month → invest in content production

Phase transition check (quarterly): - Are all phase exit criteria on trajectory? - Which channels are over/under-performing vs allocation targets? - Are operational stop-rules clear of all thresholds? - Is the content graduation on schedule (Two Crowns)? - Is outcomes data accumulating on schedule?

Version History¶

Version	Date	Changes
1.0	February 2026	Initial release. Complete growth architecture from 0 → 50,000 covering acquisition channels, content strategy, paid framework, professional partnerships, and measurement.
2.0	February 2026	Major revision. Applied outcome-first messaging rule throughout (Brand Voice v1.1 alignment). Added operational stop-rules per phase (QA_HOLD working capital, lab SLA, CPD trajectory). Rebalanced Phase 1 paid creative from premium-aesthetic to proof-demonstration. Systematised professional partner programme (CRM fields, monthly cadence email, versioned asset packs). Added Two Crowns content graduation (safety crown → outcomes crown sequencing). Added Execution Artifacts section (weekly dashboard, event schema, kill/scale rules). Integrated financial model constraints (working capital, CPD stop-rules, cash conversion cycle). Added Risk Scenarios 6-7 (lab SLA drift, working capital crunch).
2.1	February 2026	Added Golden Path appendix (baseline health model for Week-1 → Box-2 journey) with cadence-relative timing and QR scan instrumentation definition. Added referral trigger timing rules (active nudge only after confidence-confirming moments). Applied outcomes language hygiene throughout (commonly reported, not claims). Replaced ambiguous "bid aggressively" with CAC-guarded executable rule. Integrated market defensibility as first-class growth constraint: added defensibility paragraph to Core Growth Thesis, Scenario 0 (market standard becomes copyable) to Risk Scenarios, 5 defensibility tiles to Weekly Growth Review dashboard, and defensibility standing item to weekly meeting agenda.

Appendix A: The Phase 1 Golden Path¶

Purpose¶

The kill/scale rules tell you when something is broken. The Golden Path tells you how broken.

This is the operator-facing baseline for a perfect Week-1 → Box-2 customer journey. Every metric below is a hypothesis that gets validated or revised against real Phase 1 data. The value is not in the exact numbers — it's in having a number to compare against. Without a baseline, "QR scan rate is 12%" is meaningless. With a baseline expectation of 35-45%, it's a red flag that demands investigation.

The Journey: Order → Box-2¶

Step	Event	Expected Timing	Baseline Expectation	Red Flag
1	Order placed	Day 0	—	—
2	Order confirmation email opened	Day 0 (within 2 hours)	85-90% open rate	<70%
3	Transition guide email opened	Day 1	70-80% open rate	<55%
4	Box dispatched	Day 1-3 (depending on production cycle)	100% within 5 days	>7 days
5	Box delivered	Day 2-5	95% first-attempt delivery	<85%
6	QR code scanned (proof page viewed)	Day 2-7 (within 48h of delivery)	35-45% of customers	<20%

Measurement definition (Step 6): QR scan rate = unique customers with proof_page_viewed event where qr=true URL parameter is present, within 48 hours of confirmed delivery. Do not rely on client-side events alone — QR URL structure must be unique per batch + customer/box, redirects must preserve UTM parameters, and the event must be server-side logged on proof page load to avoid iOS cookie restrictions and "scan ≠ page load" edge cases. | 7 | Week 1 check-in email opened | Day 7 | 60-70% open rate | <45% | | 8 | Week 1 check-in reply received | Day 7-10 | 15-25% reply rate | <8% | | 9 | Week 2 check-in email opened | Day 14 | 55-65% open rate | <40% | | 10 | Week 2 check-in reply received | Day 14-17 | 10-20% reply rate | <5% | | 11 | Box-2 renewal charge processed | T+0 (T = next scheduled renewal, cadence-dependent) | — | — | | 12 | Box-2 retention confirmed | T+0 to T+7 | ≥70% | <60% |

Timing note: The Golden Path assumes the default 4-week cadence. Customers on longer cycles (e.g., 6-week for larger boxes) will naturally hit Steps 11-12 later. Measure Box-2 timing relative to each customer's configured renewal date, not calendar days from first order. Mislabelling a healthy 6-week-cycle customer as "late churn" because they haven't reordered by Day 28 is a measurement error, not a retention problem.

Key Diagnostic Ratios¶

These ratios tell you where the journey is breaking:

QR Scan Rate (Step 6) Definition: Unique customers with proof_page_viewed via qr=true parameter within 48h of delivery. Server-side logged. Do not rely on client-side events alone. Baseline: 35-45% of delivered customers scan the QR code on their first box. Why it matters: The QR scan is the proof delivery moment — the experience that converts anxiety into trust. If scan rate is low, either the QR placement on packaging is unclear, the call-to-action on the pouch isn't compelling, or customers aren't curious enough about verification. This is a packaging and onboarding problem, not a marketing problem. If below 20%: Redesign QR placement and consider adding a prompt in the delivery notification email ("Your batch has been verified — scan the code on your pouch to see the results").

Check-In Reply Rate (Steps 8, 10) Baseline: 15-25% reply to Week 1, 10-20% reply to Week 2. Why it matters: Replies are the strongest early signal of engagement. Customers who reply are sharing their experience — good or bad. This is qualitative data that shapes everything. High reply rate = strong relationship. Low reply rate = emails feel transactional or irrelevant. If below 8% (Week 1): Revise email tone and CTA. The check-in should feel genuinely personal, not automated. In Phase 1, consider sending from the founder's personal email address.

Box-2 Without Intervention Rate Baseline: 55-65% of customers reach Box-2 without any churn intervention (no skip, no pause, no cancellation attempt). Why it matters: This is the "clean" retention rate — customers who just reorder naturally. The gap between this and overall Box-2 retention (≥70%) represents customers saved by intervention. If intervention is saving more than 10-15% of the cohort, something upstream is broken (transition difficulty, delivery timing, price shock after discount). If below 45%: The product or experience has a systemic problem. Investigate via check-in replies and cancellation surveys before spending more on acquisition.

Delivery → QR Scan → Box-2 Funnel The most diagnostic sequence: what percentage of customers who scan the QR code (engaging with proof) go on to order Box-2? Baseline: 80-90% of QR scanners should reach Box-2. Why it matters: If customers engage with the proof system and still churn, the problem is not trust — it's product, price, or delivery. If customers who don't scan churn at much higher rates, the proof delivery moment is working exactly as designed but not enough customers are reaching it.

How to Use This¶

Week 1 of Phase 1: Ignore these baselines. You have no data. Just ship.

Month 1 (n=20-40): Start tracking. The numbers will be noisy at this sample size. Look for obvious failures (QR scan rate <10%, zero check-in replies), not fine-grained analysis.

Month 2-3 (n=60-150): Compare against baselines. Identify the weakest step. Fix that step before optimising anything else. One intervention at a time.

Month 4-6 (n=150-500): Baselines are now calibrated to your real data. Replace the hypothesis numbers above with actual Phase 1 performance. These become the baseline for Phase 2 comparisons.

The Golden Path is a living document. By Month 6, every number in this table should be replaced with a real number derived from your cohort data.

Protocol Raw Growth Playbook v2.1 How customers find us, why they convert, what makes them stay, and what compounds growth. Lead with the outcome. Back it with the system.